Do Biden's Poor Approval Ratings Dim Election Chances?

Since January, President Joe Biden has risen in the polls. At one point, he was down 4.3 points nationally in the RCP Average, and now former President Donald Trump’s lead is only 1 point. However, despite improvement in the head-to-head polls, Biden’s low approval rating worries those hopeful for his reelection in November.A recent Gallup poll analysis found that of presidents since Dwight Eisenhower, Biden had the lowest job approval rating in the 13th quarter of his presidency at just 38.7%. The previous low for the 13th quarter was George H.W. Bush, who had a 41.8% job approval rating average from Jan. 20 to April 19, 1992. (Eisenhower had the highest rating in the 13th quarter of his presidency at 73.2%.)This approval rating has been historically significant for predicting election outcomes: All presidents with more than 50% approval at this point in their terms in the Gallup polls were reelected. Nearly all with less than 50% were not reelected, the lone exception being Barack Obama, who had a 45.9% approval rating and was reelected in 2012.

Biden’s RCP Approval Rate Average isn’t much better than the Gallup poll average at 40.1%. But if there’s any good news in these numbers, it comes in the form of Biden’s Republican opponent, a former president with his own baggage. Donald Trump’s approval rating on April 29, 2020, was only slightly better at 44.9%.

The incumbent president’s approval on the issues isn’t faring well either. On the economy, his approval rating is similar to his overall approval at 39.5%. On other major issues, his approval ratings are similarly dreary: 35.3% on foreign policy, 32.2% on immigration, 38.4% on crime, 31.9% on the Israel-Palestine conflict, and 40.7% on the Russia-Ukraine war.

Biden’s approval ratings also show little sign of getting better. Gallup polls marked this quarter as the lowest in his presidency, with the previous quarter being the prior low. The RCP Approval Rate Average recorded the previous low at 36.8% in July 2022, five months after the start of the Russia-Ukraine war and when inflation was near its peak at about 8.5%.