2010 Massachusetts Governor - Baker vs. Patrick vs. Cahill

11/2/10, 6:55 am -- Patrick's lead is consistent, but small.  If the polls' turnout models are off a bit, Baker could pull of the upset.  But you still have to consider Patrick to be a slight favorite.

10/10/10 -- Cahill's running mate and a number of advisers have left his campaign.  Making matters worse, allegations have begun to surface that Cahill's candidacy was coordinated with Deval Patrick, in order to split the anti-Patrick votes.  In the meantime, Patrick's lead has trailed away to the low single digits.  This race is looking a lot more interesting than it did a month ago.

----------Race Preview---------

For years, Republicans dominated Massachusetts. Some of the most prominent Republicans in history came out of Massachusetts politics: Charles Sumner, both Lodges, Calvin Coolidge. These were blue-blooded Yankees, with a passion for social reform movements and a belief in cautious taxing and spending. But underneath this Yankee dominance was a growing Irish Democratic presence. By the late 1800s it had turned Boston into a largely Democratic city, by the 1930s it had made the state Democratic in national elections, and by the 1960s it was donkeys all the way down.

As the Irish progressed upwards through society their political views became increasingly liberal, and by the late 1980s the Democrats had mostly absorbed the state’s Republican establishment. The last true Irish Democrat versus Yankee Republican race came in 1990, when liberal Republican William Weld won the governorship. The Republican Party is now virtually extinct in the state legislature, but the party has nevertheless won four of the last five governor’s races. The Republican path to victory is simple: Present oneself as a check on the solidly Democratic legislature.

The Democratic wave of 2006 was powerful enough that this argument failed badly, and the state went heavily for Deval Patrick, the state’s first African American governor. His tenure on Beacon Hill has been rocky, and for much of 2009 he looked extremely vulnerable. But fate seems to have smiled on the Governor, as State Treasurer Tim Cahill filed as an Independent. This seems to have split the anti-Patrick vote. Depending on whether Cahill can hold his vote share, 40 percent might just be enough for Patrick to pull out a win.