2010 California Senate - Boxer vs. Fiorina

11/2/10 -- The polls now show Boxer with a 5-point lead, although they include a SurveyUSA poll with 16 percent either undecided or going for a third party candidate.  Among people who have already voted, all three pollsters in the average are showing a tighter race.

10/29/10 -- Three new polls show a 3-5 point race here right now, tighter than some of the 8-9 point polls we've been getting.

10/27/10 -- Since yesterday's update we've received three new polls, two of which show Boxer's lead at 9 points.  She now leads by six in the RCP Average.

10/26/10 -- If we throw out Boxer's best and worst poll, her lead is pegged at somewhere between one and five points.  It is better for her than if she were trailing, but she's still an established incumbent under 50 percent.

10/20/10 -- Fiorina has steadily whittled away at Boxer's lead, and now it is down to a point.  Boxer is well below 50 percent, which is not a great place for her to be.

10/7/10 -- Fiorina has punched back with advertisements, and has closed the gap somewhat.  Boxer remains below 50 percent, but is still well within the danger zone.  In addition, some of these polls are seeing an electorate with a higher percentage of Democrats than 2008.  This seems unlikely.

9/28/10 -- Boxer has been on the air against Fiorina, and it seems to have opened up a gap between the two.  But it is worth noting that Boxer's numbers haven't improved that much; it is Fiorina's numbers going down.  Boxer is still below 50 percent, and is still vulnerable.

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California politics have long been dominated by sharp divides between north and south, as well as coastal versus inland areas. Today, the dominant divide is the east-west divide that emerged decades ago. The political affiliations of the divide are flipped, however, with Democrats representing the coastal areas and the Republicans stronger farther inland. But even these inland areas abandoned the Republicans in 2006 and 2008 as the subprime meltdown battered the state.

Few thought at the beginning of this cycle that the bad economy would cause the state’s voters to turn on the Democrats in 2010, but that appears to be what has happened. Although Senator Barbara Boxer has never been the world’s most popular senator – she won relatively close races in 1992 and 1998 before winning by 20 points in 2004 – she was thought to be reasonably safe after Barack Obama cruised to a 61-37 win in California in 2008.

But Boxer’s liberal voting record – from objecting to the certification of Ohio’s 2004 Electoral College votes to supporting a bill to censure George W. Bush – may be too liberal even for the Golden State. Polling shows the three-term senator only narrowly leading former Hewlett-Packard CEO Carly Fiornia. SurveyUSA has shown majorities disapproving of the senator, and polling this cycle has consistently shown her below 50 percent. Tellingly, the SurveyUSA polls have shown Boxer’s biggest weakness coming in the Inland Empire and Central Valley – the areas of the state hardest hit by the subprime meltdown. As of August, there’s a real chance that Boxer will loses this one.