2010 Connecticut Senate - McMahon vs. Blumenthal

11/2/10, 6:42am -- The polls show some last minute tightening here to high single digits, at the same time that we saw tightening in the Governor's race. Blumenthal is still in control, assuming that this tightening didn't continue, or accelerate, in the past 48 hours.

10/26/10 -- Time is starting to run out for McMahon.  With the balance of the polling showing Blumenthal at around 55 percent, it's going to be hard for her to pull this off.  It look like she managed to secure the 44 percent of the state that voted for George W. Bush in 2004, but couldn't expand much beyond that.

10/20/10 -- The polls have tightened a bit again, but Blumenthal is still above 50 percent.  McMahon is going to have to knock him down a few points if she is going to win this race.

10/7/10 -- What a difference a few weeks makes.  Blumenthal seems to have righted the ship here, and now leads by around ten points.  He's back in a good position to be the new junior Senator from Connecticut.

9/28/10 -- McMahon has succeeded in turning this into a low single-digit lead for AG Blumenthal.  Quinnipiac and Rasmussen show leads of 3 and 5 points, respectively.  Blumenthal is still right up against 50 percent, and there aren't many undecideds left.  But he's now in real danger of losing this race.

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Connecticut’s realignment toward the Democrats is typical of Northern states. The state’s Democratic Catholic population slowly grew throughout the 19th century, and by the mid-20th century, the Democratic vote began to outnumber the old Yankee Republican vote. In the latter half of the 20th century, the Yankee vote swung Democratic as well, creating a deeply blue state.

At the vanguard of this transformation was the Dodd family. Thomas Dodd, the grandson of Irish immigrants, won election to Congress in 1952, representing Hartford, and later to the Senate. His son, Christopher, followed in his footsteps, winning the eastern 2nd District in 1974, and fighting off the Reagan tide in 1980 to win election to the state’s other Senate seat.

Dodd’s father was felled by ethical problems in 1970, and it looked as though the son might follow in his father’s footsteps earlier this year. But Chris Dodd retired instead, leaving an open seat for Democrats to defend.

The Democratic nominee is Attorney General Richard Blumenthal, who has waited in the wings for higher office for almost 20 years. Blumenthal looked like he might be felled by a scandal where he appeared to misrepresent his military service during the Vietnam years, but his polling numbers have held up relatively well throughout the cycle.

His GOP opponent is former WWE CEO Linda McMahon. McMahon waged a capable primary campaign, running smart advertisements touting her experience as a woman who turned a minor sideshow into a multi-billion dollar enterprise. McMahon defeated two opponents, including GOP representative Rob Simmons, in the Republican primary. If she can keep the focus away from the less savory elements of her business, she could make this competitive in the fall.