2010 Nevada Senate - Angle vs. Reid

10/29/10 -- Angle has managed to pull into a fairly steady four-point lead here, with some pollsters seeing an even larger lead among those who have already voted.  Either candidate could win here, but Angle is the favorite going into the closing weekend. 

10/26/10 -- The trendline here is pretty unmistakeable.  From mid-July through mid-September, Harry Reid held onto a small lead here.  The margin starts moving in Angle's direction steadily since then.  Unless it reverses in the next seven day -- which is very much possible -- she'll be a Senator.

10/20/10 -- Angle is moving into a slight lead in the most recent polling, but this race remains tight.  Both candidates are extremely well-funded, and will have the resources to fight this out until the end.

10/13/10 -- Right now, this is one of four races that will probably decide control of the Senate.  Reid and Angle have been trading leads for a few weeks, and it is obvious that Angle's eye-popping $14 million haul in the Third Quarter is what has allowed her to stay in this game.

10/7/10 -- Angle has inched ahead in the RCP Average for the first time in several months.  Reid has only led in two of the seven polls taken since mid-September.  It's still a very close race, but Angle gets the edge.

9/29/10 -- The polls here have tightened again, and it looks like a 1- or 2-point race.  This is bad news for Harry Reid, who really needs to go into the election with a substantial lead or risk undecideds breaking heavily against him.  The edge is slowly starting to go to Angle.

----------Race Preview---------

If Harry Reid were a cat, he’d be on his 15th life. The former boxer was first elected statewide as lieutenant governor in 1974. Four years later he lost a close race to succeed conservative Democrat Alan Bible to Paul Laxalt by 600 votes. This is normally the end of a political career, but for Reid it was only the beginning. He became gaming commissioner and nearly lost his life in a literal sense when a mobster attempted to blow up his car.

Reid won a congressional seat in 1982 and was elevated to the Senate in 1986 when Laxalt retired. Reid drew weak opponents in 1992 and 2004, and won by only 400 votes in 1998 (against current Senator John Ensign).

By all accounts, Reid should be a dead politician walking. His approval ratings dropped alongside the Vegas housing market, and he polled below 40 percent in some polls. But Republicans had a weak field of candidates challenging Reid, and former Assemblywoman Sharron Angle was their eventual choice. Angle has proved to be a chronically gaffe-prone candidate, who is running as a proud Christian conservative in Sin City. Complicating matters for Angle, the state allows voters to select “none of these candidates,” which could split the anti-Reid vote. This could be a missed opportunity for Republicans.