2014 Kansas Senate - Roberts vs. Orman

11/3/14 -- Have you ever seen trendlines like this at the end of a race? Orman has a lead, but with a huge number of undecideds, it is anyone's ballgame.

10/28/14 -- Roberts' momentum seems to have stalled out, and we seem to be headed for a genuine photo finish here.

10/17/14 -- Orman is something of a skier trying to outrun an avalanche. It is nipping at his heels, but the turnoff is just in sight. For now, this appears to be going down to the wire.

10/7/14 -- The Marist poll was a jarring departure from a steady tightening of this race. One possible explanation? The poll’s sample is 82 percent white, while the 2010 and 2012 electorates were around 90 percent white.

9/29/14 -- Orman’s lead seems to have narrowed a touch, and one suspects that the undecided voters are probably primed to vote Republican. So the question becomes: Will voters decide that Orman is close enough to a Republican to pull the lever for him? At the beginning of this cycle, virtually no one would have predicted that control of the Senate might turn on the outcome of a race in Kansas. But it increasingly looks like Harry Reid’s ability to hold on to his position as majority leader might depend on breaking an 80-year Republican winning streak in the Sunflower State.

9/20/14 -- The Supreme Court of Kansas has ruled that Taylor must be removed from the ballot, so this will be a fight between Roberts and Orman going forward. While this clearly hurts Roberts in the short run, its long term effects are a lot more difficult to determine. On the one hand, Roberts would benefit from a divided opposition, and Taylor would draw off some disgruntled Democratic votes from Orman. On the other hand, if Roberts is going to win, he needs to define Orman as a de facto Democrat, and Taylor complicates this message.

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In the 98 years Kansans have directly elected senators, a majority or plurality of voters have pulled the lever for a Democrat just three times. The last time this happened was in 1932, when George McGill won a three-way race with 46 percent of the vote. Six years later, McGill’s 44 percent was not enough to win re-election, and the state has elected only Republicans since then.

This cycle, Kansas has been home to an unusually topsy-turvy race. While it is unlikely to elect a Democrat, it may well elect a non-Republican. This all started when physician Milton Wolf decided to challenge incumbent Republican Pat Roberts in the primary. That challenge ultimately fizzled, but Roberts was held to under 50 percent of the vote. Many of Wolf’s supporters suggested that they would stay home, and polling showed an unusually tight three-way race between Roberts, Democrat Chad Taylor, and Independent Greg Orman. Taylor subsequently announced that he would drop out of the race, setting up an Orman-Roberts battle. Orman had actually led Roberts in head-to-head polling, although there was a huge number of undecided. Compounding the back-and-forth, Kansas Secretary of State Kris Kobach announced that Taylor would have to remain on the ballot. The race is obviously very much in flux right now, and the smart bet seems to be that Wolf’s supporters will come home for Roberts. But it really is difficult to say in this environment.