Battleground Polls: Trump Ahead but Not an Overwhelming Lead

With less than three weeks until the election, most major events that could affect the results have already happened. Now that polls likely reflect voter sentiments similar to those that will be held on Election Day, in the swing states Trump is very slightly ahead – but the race remains too close to call.

The latest poll from Fabrizio/Anzalone, conducted Oct. 2-8 with 600 likely voters, highlighted this trend in Michigan. The poll found that Trump led by 1 point in the head-to-head race, while the multi-way race was tied; another poll from Marketing Research Group, taken Oct. 7-11 with 600 likely voters, showed Harris leading by 1 point. In the Michigan RCP Average, Trump leads by 0.9 points in the two-way race and by 0.3 points in the multi-way race.

In Pennsylvania, things are just as close. The latest poll from Rasmussen Reports, conducted Oct. 9-13 with 1,072 likely voters, had Trump ahead by 3 points, while a poll from The New York Times/Siena, taken Oct. 7-10 with 857 likely voters, had Harris ahead by 3 points in the head-to-head race and by 4 points in the multi-way. The Pennsylvania RCP Average also indicates the race is a toss-up, with Trump leading by 0.3 points in the head-to-head race, while Harris leads by 0.2 points in the multi-way.

In Wisconsin, the only swing state where Harris leads in the RCP Average, she holds a slim lead of 0.3 points in the two-way race and 0.4 points in the multi-way race. The last three polls in the state also show a dead-even tie.

In the South, the races are similarly close. Trafalgar Group’s (R) latest poll shows Trump leading by 2 points in both North Carolina and Arizona. However, the RCP Averages show smaller leads, with Trump ahead by 0.7 points in North Carolina and by 1.1 in Arizona.

In Nevada, Trump took the lead in the RCP Average last week after a Wall Street Journal poll, conducted Sept. 28-Oct. 8, found him ahead by 6 points. However, he leads by only 0.2 points in the Nevada RCP Average. In the other southern swing state, Georgia, Trump leads by 0.5 points in the RCP Average.

Across all these states, Trump leads by 0.5 points in the current RCP Average of the Battleground States. If the current head-to-head RCP Averages hold until Election Day, Trump will win the Electoral College with 302-236 votes. 

However, his leads in these swing states are all 1.1 points or less, meaning each state is still too close to call. Compared to the 2020 election, this lead is minuscule. At this point in the 2020 polls, the only “swing state” where a candidate was ahead by 1.1 points or less was Ohio, where Biden led by 0.6 points in the RCP Average, although Trump ultimately won the state by 8.2 points.

What becomes clearer each day is that unless something in the next three weeks causes polls to shift, neither candidate will have an overwhelming advantage going into Election Day.