Battleground States Wrap-Up: Race Remains Effectively Tied

The latest round of swing state polling indicates that neither Trump nor Harris has made significant gains in the swing states. In the RealClearPolitics Average of the Top Battleground States, the race is again a dead-even tie, meaning any small changes in the race over the next month could decide who wins the presidency.

One of the latest polls from Remington Research (R), conducted Sept. 16-20 for American Fuel & Petroleum Manufacturers, found that in the largest swing state, Pennsylvania, Trump led by 1 point, 48%-47%. The latest Trafalgar Group (R) and Atlas Intel polls also found Trump up 3 points in Pennsylvania, but five of the last 11 polls found the race tied. The current RCP Average in Pennsylvania has Trump up just 0.1 points, an effective tie.

In the other two Rust Belt swing states, recent polls indicate Harris holds a lead. In the Remington poll, Trump and Harris were tied in Wisconsin, while Harris led by 2 points in Michigan. The latest New York Times/Siena poll found Harris up 1 point in Michigan and 2 points in Wisconsin. In the RCP Averages, Harris leads by 1.4 points in Michigan and 0.8 in Wisconsin.

The Remington poll also surveyed Nevada and found Trump leading by one point, the same result as the latest InsiderAdvantage poll conducted Sept. 29-30. However, several previous polls showed Harris ahead, including one from Bloomberg that had her up by 7 points. This led to a 1.4 point lead for Harris in the Nevada RCP Average.

In the other southern swing states, Trump holds a lead. In North Carolina, the latest Washington Post and East Carolina University polls had Trump up by 2 points, and the InsiderAdvantage poll had Trump up by 1. He currently leads by 0.7 points in the RCP Average for North Carolina.

In Arizona, the InsiderAdvantage poll found Trump up by 1 point, and USA Today/Suffolk had him up by 6 points. In the Arizona RCP Average, he leads by 1.9 points. Lastly, in Georgia, InsiderAdvantage had Trump and Harris tied, but a CBS poll conducted Sept. 20-25 had Trump up by 2 points. The Georgia RCP Average splits the difference, having Trump up by 1.1 points.

If these RCP Averages hold until Election Day, the race will be incredibly close. As the RCP No Toss-Up Map shows, if the election were decided by the current averages, Trump would win with 281-257 electoral votes. However, the outcome hinges on Pennsylvania, where Trump leads by just 0.1 points, leaving the election a toss-up with a little over a month to go until Election Day.