Biden Approval Rating Improving in Waning Months of Presidency

After the first presidential debate on June 27, Biden’s approval ratings were at the second lowest of his entire presidency. However, now that economic indicators have been improving and the focus of the 2024 presidential election has shifted to Kamala Harris, his approval ratings seem to be improving slightly in the last months of his presidency.

According to the latest New York Times/Siena poll, Biden’s approval ratings have improved eight points since the period right after the debate. After the debate, he faced a -25% approval rating in the NYT poll, with 61% disapproving and 36% approving. In the latest poll, taken from Sept. 3-6, he had a -17% approval rating. Right after he dropped out of the race on July 21, the NYT poll at the time found that he had an even better approval rating, with 42% approving and 55% disapproving.

These numbers were also reflected in the RCP Average for Biden's approval ratings. One week after the first presidential debate, Biden had the second-lowest approval rating of his term, at -19.3% in the RCP Average. Since then, it’s improved by seven points to -12.2%. In September 2020, Trump also faced negative but slightly better approval in the RCP Average for Trump’s job approval at the time, hovering around -9%.

Part of this increase in approval ratings is likely due to improving numbers on the economy and inflation. The latest inflation numbers, measured by the Consumer Price Index, showed year-over-year inflation down to 2.5% in August from 2.9% in July.

The unemployment rate is slightly above its low point of 3.4% in April 2023, with the August numbers coming in at 4.2%. This unemployment rate remains acceptable for a healthy economy and was an expected effect of the Federal Reserve raising interest rates over the last two years.

However, with the latest inflation numbers coming down from their previous peaks, the Federal Reserve has indicated that it will start bringing down interest rates, and current betting markets predict around a 1% interest rate reduction before the end of the year. This is a sign that the economy is finally returning to a steady state after the multi-year effects of the pandemic response and elevated energy prices resulting from the onset of the Russia-Ukraine war.

The latest Harvard-Harris polls also indicate that Biden is faring slightly better than previous troughs in his approval rating on the economy when inflation peaked. In a June 28-29, 2022, Harvard-Harris poll, Biden faced a -36% approval rating on the economy, with 68% disapproving of how he’s handled the economy and 32% approving. At the time, inflation was at its peak of 9%, as measured by the Consumer Price Index.

In the latest Harvard-Harris poll, his approval rating has improved but remains deep in the red on the economy, at -24%. The RCP Average for his approval of the economy is similarly negative, at -20.7%. If the economy continues to improve and no unexpected recession comes before his presidency ends, these numbers will likely continue to improve.