Close Polls Set Stage for Vice-Presidential Debate

The last major planned election event is happening Tuesday night in the vice-presidential debate. Although VP debates haven’t historically decided races, given how close the presidential race is, a standout performance from either Sen. J.D. Vance or Gov. Tim Walz could have an outsized impact on the race.

Looking at the state of the race, the latest nationwide polls were from Rasmussen, which had Trump up 2 points; CNN, which had Harris up 1 point, and Quinnipiac, which had the race tied. In the Nationwide RCP Average, Harris currently leads by 2 points, and in the multi-way nationwide race, she also leads by 2.

However, the election won’t be decided by the national popular vote. On average, in the seven swing states, the RCP Average has Trump up just 0.1 points, an effective tie. Each individual state is close as well, with the greatest lead for either candidate being 2 points in Arizona. In Pennsylvania, the largest and most important swing state, the race is the closest, with Trump leading by only 0.1 points in the Pennsylvania RCP Average. He also leads in North Carolina and Georgia, while Harris currently leads in Nevada, Wisconsin, and Michigan.

If these RCP Averages were the final results of the election in November, the Trump/Vance ticket would win narrowly with 281-257 Electoral College votes, as can be seen in the RCP No Toss-Up Map. However, if Harris were to make up the 0.2-point race in Pennsylvania, the race would flip to a Harris/Walz win, 276-262.

Betting markets reflect this very close race as well. In the RCP Average of Betting Odds, Harris leads by 2.3 points, 50.4%-48.1%. One betting market, Polymarket, also allows bettors to bet on specific races and found that Harris leads by 2% in the critical swing state of Pennsylvania, while all other states had 6+ point differences. They also have a betting market on the popular vote, in which 75% predict Harris will win and 24% believe Trump will win.

One of the things the VP debate is likely to impact is the favorability of the VP candidates. Since entering the contest, Vance has had net negative favorability; in the latest Economist/YouGov poll, 34% had a favorable opinion, while 51% rated him as unfavorable. Walz has been consistently neutral, and the poll found 41% held a favorable opinion and 41% unfavorable.

Although topics haven’t been announced or given to the candidates, the debate is likely to touch on some of the most important issues for voters, which, according to the CBS poll, include inflation/prices and immigration for Republicans, and inflation/prices, healthcare, climate change/environment, and abortion for Democrats. If either vice-presidential candidate is able to craft a specific narrative around these issues in the debate, they could define the story of the election for the next month and move swing voters in specific swing states.