Democratic Senate Candidates Look To Set Themselves Apart From Harris

All three “blue wall” Senate races are rated toss-ups by Cook Political Report, as Democratic candidates seek to help their cause by distancing themselves from an unpopular Biden-Harris administration.

The blue wall states – Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, and Michigan – are desperately needed wins if the Democrats have any hope of maintaining Senate control in November. Yet with former President Donald Trump pulling ahead of Vice President Kamala Harris in the presidential race, Democratic Senate candidates have been looking to set themselves apart.

Trump recently pulled ahead of Harris in the blue wall states, according to RealClearPolitics polling averages. In the RCP Wisconsin Average, Trump leads by 0.4 points; in the RCP Pennsylvania Average, Trump has a slight edge of 0.8 points; in the RCP Michigan Average Trump is up 1.2 points. It was the hope of down-ballot candidates that Harris would be seeing 5, 6, or 7-point leads by now, as President Joe Biden had four years ago.

Instead, incumbent Sen. Tammy Baldwin of Wisconsin and incumbent Sen. Bob Casey of Pennsylvania, alongside Rep. Elissa Slotkin – who is fighting for Michigan’s open seat – have been forced to take a more middle-of-the-road approach, embracing certain of Trump’s policies and brushing off some associations with Harris.

In the Badger State, Baldwin did not mention either presidential candidate in her debate appearance Friday, while her opponent, Republican businessman Eric Hovde, repeatedly attempted to connect Baldwin to the Biden-Harris administration. Though Baldwin is focusing on some popular Democratic policies, like preserving Social Security and protecting abortion rights, she does not echo Harris’ proposals. 

Baldwin, who leads by 2.0 points in the RCP Average, has also highlighted her commitment to boosting domestic infrastructure over Chinese production and her support of Trump’s tariffs on Chinese imports. Her team is working overtime to point out that she is currently working with Trump’s running mate J.D. Vance on a bill that aims to support domestic industry and farming in an effort to paint her as a Democrat that Republicans can vote for. When Harris visited Wisconsin on Thursday, Baldwin stayed away.

In the Keystone State, Casey is also embracing Trump’s tariff policies. His campaign debuted an advertisement last week that described him as “independent,” bragged about how he “bucked” the Biden administration to protect fracking and “sided with Trump to end NAFTA.” The Casey team seems to be targeting Republican voters who are concerned about failing domestic industry, a topic of major importance in the blue wall states.

Casey has also attacked his opponent Dave McCormick, former CEO of the hedge fund Bridgewater, over ties to China. Casey sounds like Trump here, repeatedly claiming McCormick’s hedge fund invested in Chinese defense. In a race where Casey is up just 1.9 points in the RCP Average and Trump is outpolling McCormick, the strategy feels fitting.

In Michigan, Slotkin is using the same playbook as Baldwin and Casey by emphasizing American reliance on foreign manufacturing. Electric vehicles have become a touchstone in her race thanks to Michigan’s role in automaking, and Slotkin insists that “if there’s going to be a new generation of vehicles, I want that new generation built right here in Michigan, not China.” Slotkin is up 2.1 points in the must-win race for Democrats, according to the RCP Average.

Baldwin, Casey, and Slotkin are all well aware of the convincing correlation between Senate races and the presidential race in both 2016 and 2020, the last two times Trump was on the ballot. And though the three Democrats were outperforming Harris more impressively earlier this year, the polls are starting to narrow as Election Day grows closer. Both Baldwin’s and Casey’s races have only recently been moved from the “leans Democrat” column to the ‘toss-up’ column by Cook Political Report.

The candidates seem to understand that the less voters associate them with the presidential race, the better chance they have at victory.