Despite Fulton County Case, Georgians Support Trump

Earlier this month, former President Trump secured a significant win in Georgia. The Georgia Court of Appeals put the election subversion conspiracy case against Trump and others on hold until a panel of judges in Fulton County decides whether Fulton County District Attorney Fani Willis should be disqualified from the case. This order indicates the trial is unlikely to occur before the 2024 election, which gives Trump more time and money to use on the campaign trail. Trump’s victories in Georgia also extend beyond the courtroom, with recent polls showing he maintains a solid lead in the state.

The latest poll from The Atlanta Journal-Constitution, conducted June 11-22 with 1,000 likely voters, found that in the three-way race between former President Trump, President Biden, and independent candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr., Trump led Biden by 5 points, 43%-38%, with Kennedy trailing in a distant third at 9%.

Another Hill/Emerson poll found similar results, with Trump at 45% and Biden at 41% in a two-way race. With the addition of Kennedy, independent candidate Cornel West, and Green Party candidate Jill Stein, Trump’s lead expands to eight points. His support remained at 45%, while Biden’s dropped to 37%, Kennedy received 6%, and West and Stein each received 1%. The current RCP Averages also indicate that Trump holds a greater lead in the five-way race, with a 5.6-point lead, compared to the two-way race, where he holds a 4-point lead.

One of the drivers of this lead, compared to Trump’s 2020 0.3-point loss in Georgia, is the changing views of black Georgians. According to exit polls in 2020, Biden received 88% support from black voters in Georgia, but the AJC poll found only 70% now say they support Biden. Given that Georgia has the third highest percentage of African Americans of any state in the country, their support can significantly influence the state’s electoral outcomes.

Both polls also found that, similar to national trends, the most important issues for Georgians are inflation and the economy. Georgia was one of the states worst hit by inflation over the past two years, with year-over-year inflation rates reaching 13.9% in January 2022. In 2023, inflation cooled somewhat, but recent months indicate a slight resurgence, with the latest data from May showing it has crept up to 2% from 0.5% in March. Despite the 2022 inflation, unemployment remains low in the state, hovering around 3.1%-3.2%, which is below pre-pandemic levels.