Did the Harris-Trump Debate Change the Race?

Last week’s debate, the long-awaited high-stakes face-off between Kamala Harris and Donald Trump, did little to move the political needle. 

Much of the political world – and America – agree that Harris won the debate. Harris managed to get under Trump’s skin early and consistently, making the former president appear easily agitated and overly focused on personal grievances.

Democratic pundits lauded Harris’ performance, calling her deft, tactful, and convincing. Republican talking heads defended Trump’s showing little and instead focused their ire on the ABC moderators for being unfairly harsh on Trump with their questions and fact-checking. A CNN poll of debate-watchers showed that Americans thought Harris won the debate by a margin of 2-1, a convincing consensus and a major win for Harris – or so one might think.

Yet several post-debate polls show that Harris’ victory last week did little to significantly change the contours of the presidential race. There have so far been three post-debate polls to come out, which can be compared to their pre-debate counterparts. 

An ABC News/Ipsos poll from late August placed Harris up four points on Trump, 50%-46%. Polling from the same firm conducted in the days immediately following the debate showed that Harris had gained one point in the polls, with 51% support, but Trump’s support had also risen one point, to 47%, meaning her lead remained stable at +4.

Polling from Yahoo News showed a more impressive rise in the polls for Harris. August polling from Yahoo News showed Harris just one point up on Trump, 47%-46%, but post-debate polling showed Harris rise three points in support, lengthening her lead to 50%-46% against former President Trump.

Morning Consult polling from early September placed Harris up three points on Trump, 49%-46%. The same firm conducted a snap poll the day after the debate and found Harris gained a point where Trump lost a point, meaning Harris’ lead extended to five points and placed the candidates in a 50%-45% split.

A look at the RCP Average over time shows how Harris’ fortunes have not been distinctly altered by her winning performance. Pre-debate, Harris led Trump by 1.1 points. A week after the debate, she leads by 1.8 points.

This is not necessarily surprising if one has been paying attention. Trump’s base is so loyal and his character so divisive that any performance from him – good or bad – was unlikely to turn the tides for or against the former president.

Moreover, many undecided candidates who have been interviewed about the debate said that while Harris outperformed Trump, they still did not get what they needed from her.

Several voters said Harris failed to explain how she would tackle inflation and high costs of living. Others said that while her plan to help fledgling small business owners and new parents is commendable, Harris did not touch on how her policies would help people who are already situated in life but still struggle to make their mortgage payments or pay for groceries.

The snap CNN poll showed that confidence in Harris to handle the economy fell by two points to 35% after the debate, while trust in Trump on the issue rose by two points to 55%. For reference, when voters were asked “what one issue is most important in deciding your vote this November,” 22% answered “the economy,” according to a NY Times/Siena College poll.

Harris continues to hammer on issues that are more in her wheelhouse and play well with her base, like abortion and painting Trump as a threat to democracy, while she embarks on a “New Way Forward” tour of pivotal swing states. Last Friday, Harris hosted a rally in Pennsylvania, a state both campaigns consider crucial in their potential paths to victory and which is virtually tied in the RCP Average as Trump leads by 0.2 points.

Trump, meanwhile, is also touring swing states and channeling America’s frustration with unfettered immigration. He was in Arizona, a state he leads by 1.3 points, and Michigan, where Harris leads by 0.7 points, over the weekend before heading back to his home in Florida. The former president was enjoying a round of golf in West Palm Beach on Sunday when Secret Service opened fire on a potential gunman, the second time Trump was the target of an assassination plot in two months.

The Trump campaign sent out a fundraising email shortly after the incident, in which Trump confirmed his safety: “There were gunshots in my vicinity, but before rumors start spiraling out of control, I wanted you to hear this first: I am safe and well,” Trump wrote. 

The attempted assassination underscores the deep divisions roiling America, seen in both polling data and violent action. Every indicator suggests the presidential election, now less than 50 days away, will be the closest in American history, with neither side willing to make nice or give ground.