Harris' Favorability Rating Rises

Vice President Kamala Harris has seen steadily improving poll numbers and favorability since ascending to the top of the Democratic ticket less than six weeks ago. Now, in post-Democratic National Convention polls, Harris’ favorability ratings are better than ever, and she is leading former President Donald Trump by larger margins than ever.

When President Joe Biden abandoned his reelection bid on July 21, Harris had a net favorability rating of -14.2%; 52.3% of the country viewed the vice president unfavorably, and only 38.1% of Americans held a positive opinion of her, according to the RCP Average. It was these poor numbers that worried Democrats; Even Joe Biden, who had a net favorability rating of -17.5% at the time, was viewed favorably by a higher percentage (39.1%) of people. The entire point of getting Biden to step aside was to heighten Democrats’ chances of winning the election, and Harris’ poor numbers indicated she wouldn’t be any help at all. 

There was discussion of an open convention, mini primaries, or any other obscure nominating processes to allow the party to select a popular standard-bearer who might actually stand a chance against Trump. Yet when Biden finally did bow to party pressure, it was Harris he tapped.

Then, something unexpected happened: Party elites and commoners alike rallied behind her in an unprecedented show of unity. Harris set fundraising records, filled stadiums, and steadily rose in the polls. 

Harris’ net favorability now stands at -1.5%. Harris is today viewed unfavorably by 48.7% of Americans and viewed favorably by another 47.2%.

Trump’s favorability ratings, on the other hand, have stayed relatively stable over the past month, though his net favorability rating did improve after he survived an attempted assassination. The RCP Average shows that Trump’s net favorability rating was -12.3% on July 13, the day a would-be assassin’s bullet grazed his ear. Today, Trump’s net favorability rating is -8.6%; 52.8% of people view the former president unfavorably, while 44.2% have a favorable opinion of him.

A recent Gallup poll shows these numbers are deeply partisan. Democrats almost unanimously view Harris favorably at 93%, while 41% of independents have a positive opinion of the vice president. Just 5% of Republicans view Harris positively. Trump’s numbers show similar division. Eighty-six percent of Republicans view Trump favorably, while 36% of independents and 6% of Democrats feel the same.

Harris’ lead over Trump in the RCP Average is also higher than ever, at 1.8 points. One Thursday poll from USA Today/Suffolk University showed Harris up five points, 48%-43%, on Trump. Another Reuters/Ipsos poll published Thursday showed the vice president ahead by four points in a 45%-41% lead. The vice president is, however, enjoying a boost from the first post-convention polls, and history cautions poll-happy interpreters to wait until the dust settles from all the excitement to get a more accurate picture of how voters intend to vote in November.

Yet in an election cycle that has offered nothing but excitement for six weeks straight, it may be that peaks and valleys are the one thing pollsters can count on going into November.