House Control Up for Grabs – Leans Republican

Democrats’ hopes of blocking full Republican control of the White House and Congress appear to be fading, though votes are still being counted in several key races for seats in the House of Representatives. It could be days or weeks before America knows for sure which party controls the lower chamber of Congress, and thus whether Democrats have a key check on team Trump.

Democrats need to flip four net seats to win the House; of the races called by Thursday morning, Republicans have gained a net four seats across the country. The GOP needs to win 10 more races to maintain their narrow House majority, while Democrats are 32 victories away from the same goal. If Republicans succeed in defending their majority, Speaker Mike Johnson has promised to launch “the most aggressive 100-day agenda of the modern era.”

Democrats’ dreams of a majority hinge on flipping several swing districts across the western United States. There is the California 45th, a Republican-held Orange County district where President Joe Biden won by six points in 2020, making it a priority for Democrats this cycle. Rep. Michelle Steel (R) is leading Democratic challenger Derek Tran by about 10,000 votes with 70% of ballots reported.

In the nearby California 41st, incumbent Republican Ken Calvert is holding off Democratic challenger Will Rollins by about 2 points with 76% of the vote counted. In California’s 27th, moderate incumbent Mike Garcia (R) is performing as well as Calvert: With 69% of the vote in, Garcia is over 2 points up on Democratic challenger George Whitesides.

In California’s 13th, freshman Congressman John Duarte (R) is leading by 2 points in a rematch against Democrat Adam Gray. Duarte’s 2022 win against Gray was one of the closest in the country, and with just 52% of the vote in as of Thursday morning, 2024 looks to be a similarly intense nail-biter.

Another California district Democrats hoped to flip was the 22nd, where Democratic challenger Rudy Salas is attempting to unseat incumbent David Valadao. With 56% of the vote counted and Valadao up 10 points, Salas and the Democrats have a long way to go if they hope to win this district.

The Democrats are also looking to flip two seats in the swing state of Arizona. In Arizona’s 6th, incumbent Juan Ciscomani currently leads Democratic challenger Kirsten Engel by less than a percentage point with 67% of the vote total reported. In Arizona’s 1st, 69% of ballots have been counted and show incumbent Republican Congressman David Schweikert with a narrow lead of 10,000 votes over Democratic challenger Amish Shah.

Democrats are also looking to hold on to two key seats in Maine and Ohio. In Maine’s 2nd, incumbent Congressman Jared Golden (D) is attempting to hold off Republican challenger Austin Theriault. Golden managed win the district alongside Trump in 2016 and 2020, and with 93% of the vote total reported as of Thursday morning, he may be the beneficiary of split-ticket voting once again; Golden is up 2,500 votes.

In Ohio’s 9th, Democrats need incumbent Marcy Kaptur to hold on tight. About 99% of the vote has been counted, and Kaptur is up about 1,200 votes on Republican challenger Derek Merrin in what is shaping up to be one of the closest races in the country. In Ohio, postmarked ballots are allowed to arrive up to Saturday, Nov. 9 – so the race cannot be called until those votes have been tallied.

These are just a few of the races to keep an eye on – there are about 15 other House races that could impact the first two years of the second Trump presidency. If Republicans can hold on to their seats in places like California and Arizona and flip a few seats in the east, the GOP could achieve the coveted trifecta in federal government.