How Important Is Next Week's Presidential Debate?

The high-stakes Sept. 10 presidential debate between Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump is less than a week away. Harris leads Trump by 1.9 points in the RCP National Average, but the two candidates remain virtually tied in swing state polls, indicating the tight nature of the race and the importance of the upcoming debate.

Republican pollster Frank Luntz said on CNN he believed the debate “is everything” and outlined what he believes the two candidates must do during the debate to improve their standing with the American public.

“For Trump, can he keep quiet? Can he actually listen to a response, or does he have to respond to everything,” Luntz said. “For Harris, does she seem open-minded? Does she seem willing to take in information not just project?”

“Each of them has different goals for that debate, but each one, in the end, has to prove that they’re ready, not just for that moment, but voters are thinking, ‘who do I want to represent me two years from now, three or four years from now?’” Luntz continued.

Debates typically do not impact polling numbers dramatically, and in an increasingly partisan America, the fact is that most people have already decided who they are going to cast a ballot for in November. Yet it is worth remembering that America’s most recent presidential debate was so influential that it changed not only the contours of the race but the candidates.

When President Joe Biden met Trump on the debate stage in June, Biden failed to do the one thing that was absolutely required of him: prove to the American public he was not too old to do the job for another four years. Instead, all 81 of Biden’s years were exposed under the glaring lights of the debate stage, and four weeks later, he resigned his candidacy.

The Trump team touted Biden’s disastrous performance as a product of Trump’s masterful maneuvering, citing it as one of the reasons Trump does not need to prepare for the debate against Harris.

“President Trump has proven to be one of the best debaters in political history as evidenced by his knockout blow to Joe Biden,” Trump campaign spokesperson Karoline Leavitt said. She added that Trump “does not need traditional debate prep but will continue to meet with respected policy advisors.”

The strategy of the Trump campaign this time around will be to go after the vice president’s political stance on key issues like immigration, fracking, and the economy, as well as her record as a prosecutor and as vice president.

The Harris campaign, on the other hand, is preparing its candidate by having Harris mock debate Philippe Reines, the consultant who aided Hillary Clinton in debate prep back in 2016. Harris aims to get under Trump’s skin and remain calm when he inevitably begins to personally attack her, a source told NBC News. Harris hopes to draw a contrast between herself and the former president, proving that she can act presidential in a way he cannot.

The Harris team dreamt of a debate with hot mics to highlight Trump’s inability to respect his fellow candidate, the moderators, and the rules. In Trump’s 2020 debate with Biden, Trump interrupted so often that he came off as unappealing to many voters and made Biden so irritated that the then-candidate snapped, “Will you shut up, man?”

In the June debate, one candidate’s mic was muted when it was the other’s turn to speak, providing Trump with a certain discipline and allowing him to come off as uncharacteristically subdued. 

The vice president’s team has pushed to change the rule, but ABC’s most recent memos indicate that no such change has been made and that the rules that were in place for the first debate will remain in place for this second debate despite all that has changed since that fateful day in June.

Though much has changed since the first presidential debate of the cycle, one thing remains true: The spotlight will be harsh on Harris and Trump this Tuesday, their weaknesses on display and their opportunity to sway undecided voters their way fleeting.