Is Trump Taking a Lead in the Swing States?

As the presidential election approaches, the number of polls being conducted is increasing. While the data still indicates a tight race in key swing states, the latest round of polls suggests Trump may be gaining a slight lead.

In the battleground states, the biggest change this week was in Michigan, where all the polls had Trump either ahead or tied with Harris, in the state where Harris previously led in the RCP Average. The Quinnipiac poll in the state, taken from Oct. 3-7, had Trump up four points. Polls from GSG/NSOR, Trafalgar Group (R), and MIRS/MI News Source had Trump up between one and two points, and The Hill/Emerson had the race tied. A week ago, on Oct. 3, Harris led by 0.7 points in the Michigan RCP Average, but the state has since flipped to a 0.7-point lead in Trump’s favor.

The largest swing state, Pennsylvania, had more conflicting results. In the Hill/Emerson and Insider Advantage polls from this week, Trump led by one and two points, respectively, but in the Quinnipiac poll, Harris led by two. As has been the case since shortly after Harris entered the race, the RCP Average in Pennsylvania remains very tight, with Trump up just 0.3 points.

In Wisconsin, Trump led in the Quinnipiac poll but was tied in the Hill/Emerson poll. Harris still maintains a slight lead in the state of 0.4 points in the Wisconsin RCP Average.

While Trump largely gained in the industrial northern states, his leads decreased marginally in the Sunbelt. A week ago in Georgia, Trump led by 1.5 points in the RCP Average, but now only leads by 0.8 points. This shrinking lead was mirrored in the Hill/Emerson poll, as the previous poll taken from Sept. 15-18 had him ahead by three points in the state, but the latest only had him ahead by one.

Arizona is a similar story, as the latest Hill/Emerson poll taken from Oct. 5-8 has Trump up two points, while the previous Emerson poll from Sept. 27-28 had him up by three points. Over the last week, his lead in the Arizona RCP Average has shrunk slightly from 1.4 to 0.9 points.

In North Carolina and Nevada, not much changed over the last week. The Hill/Emerson found Trump up one point in North Carolina and Harris up one point in Nevada, both similar to other polls in the state. The RCP Averages in these states also reflect these small leads, as Trump leads by 0.9 points in North Carolina, and Harris leads by one point in Nevada.

Ultimately, most of the polls in the swing states this week don’t reflect a significant change in the race. The largest change, if it holds, is that Michigan could be a closer contest, perhaps increasing the likelihood of a Trump victory. If Trump continues to lead in Georgia, North Carolina, and Arizona, he only needs to win one of Wisconsin, Michigan, or Pennsylvania to return to the White House. 

If the current RCP Averages hold until Election Day, Trump would win the Electoral College, 296-242, as seen in the RCP No-Toss Up Map. However, as he only leads by 0.3 points on average in the battleground states, this lead is not guaranteed to hold until Election Day.