Kamala Stronger Candidate Than Biden, Betting Odds Indicate

After the first presidential debate, betting odds shifted sharply in favor of former President Trump. Although he was already ahead, Trump’s odds in the RealClearPolitics Betting Average jumped from 51.7%-35.5% in favor of Trump on June 26 to 54.8%-22.2%, a 32.6-point gap, on June 27 after the debate. Since President Biden stepped down and endorsed Vice President Kamala Harris, odds have shifted slightly in the Democrats’ favor, indicating that betting markets see Kamala Harris as a potentially stronger candidate than Biden.

On July 15, at his widest margin, Trump was leading Biden by 48.2 points in betting odds, 66.2%-18%, right after he announced J.D. Vance as his VP pick. Harris was gaining traction at the time, with a 7.2% chance to be the next president. Since the announcement, Democrats’ chances have increased significantly to nearly pre-debate levels, with Harris’ chances jumping to 30.5% on Monday, while Trump’s chances have fallen to 59.7%.

Betting markets also strongly predict that Harris will be the Democratic nominee. On July 20, the day before Biden’s announcement, Harris was the favorite to receive the nomination, even over Biden, with a 48% chance in the RCP Betting Average for the Democratic Presidential Nomination, while Biden was at 27.4%. Other candidates such as California Gov. Gavin Newsom, Michelle Obama, Hillary Clinton, and Michigan Gov. Gretchen Whitmer trailed at between 4% and 6% each.

Since the endorsement from Biden as well as other prominent Democrats such as the Clintons, Nancy Pelosi, and Gavin Newsom, Harris has jumped to an 87% chance in the Polymarket betting odds. The only other possible contender is Michelle Obama, who remains at 7% in the betting odds because Barack Obama has yet to endorse Kamala Harris as the nominee.

However, not everyone supported the decision for Kamala to become the Democratic nominee, a snap YouGov poll conducted on Sunday after the announcement found. Of the 2,048 adult respondents, only 37% said they wanted Kamala Harris as the new candidate for president, while 35% wanted someone else, and 27% were unsure. Among Democrats, there was more consensus, with 60% responding that they supported Harris and 21% supporting someone else. The poll does not indicate if respondents knew about Biden’s endorsement of Harris as the nominee.

Contrary to the results of the betting markets, which indicate that bettors predict Trump is less likely to win against Harris than Biden, the plurality of respondents, 36%, said Biden’s decision to step aside as the Democratic nominee will make Donald Trump more likely to win. Only 23% said it makes Trump less likely to win, and 18% said it would have no impact.

Most agreed with Biden’s decision to step down, with 49% strongly approving of his decision and 22% somewhat approving. Even among Democrats, 70% strongly or somewhat approved of his decision to step down.