Larry Hogan's Senate Bid Faces Long Odds in Polls

Although Maryland hasn’t voted for a Republican in a presidential election since George H.W. Bush in 1988, the state hasn’t been closed-minded to Republicans in other state races. However, despite Republican Larry Hogan’s success in Maryland gubernatorial elections, his chances of becoming Maryland’s next senator seem slim based on current polling.

Larry Hogan was the state’s governor after winning the 2014 and 2018 gubernatorial elections. Despite former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton's 2016 win in the state by 25.2 points (60.5%-35.3%), Hogan defeated Democrat Anthony Brown 51.6%-46.9% in 2014 and Democrat Ben Jealous by a greater margin of 55.4%-43.5% in 2018. Hogan’s challenger in the Maryland Senate race is Democrat Angela Alsobrooks, who currently serves as county executive for Prince George’s County and was formerly the state’s attorney for the same county.

The latest poll found that Alsobrooks has a strong lead in the race. The poll, conducted from June 19-20 with 645 Maryland voters by Public Policy Polling, showed Alsobrooks leading Hogan 45%-34%, with other candidates, such as Libertarian Mike Scott, receiving minimal support. When voters were asked to choose between Hogan and Alsobrooks, Hogan did slightly better but still trailed by eight points, 48%-40%. Part of this has to do with the candidates' favorability ratings. According to the poll, both had positive favorability, but Alsobrooks had a net favorability 10 points higher than Hogan, 27%-17%.

Another recent poll from The Hill/Emerson College, conducted on May 6-8 with 1,115 registered voters, was conducted before Alsobrooks was solidified as the candidate in the May 14 primaries but also had Alsobrooks ahead by a similar 10-point margin, 48%-38%.

President Biden fairs even better than Alsobrooks in the PPP poll, leading former President Trump by 26 points, 56%-30%. Biden won by a similarly large margin in 2020, beating the former president by 32.9 points, 65.5%-32.6%, The Hill poll also had Biden in a strong lead, leading Trump by 21 points, 56%-35%. 

Unlike the two Senate candidates, who both have double-digit net favorability ratings, President Biden’s net approval rating was only 4%, with 47% approving and 43% disapproving. Trump is viewed very unfavorably, with a net favorability rating of -40%, as only 26% had a favorable opinion of the former president, and 66% had an unfavorable opinion.