No Frontrunner in Swing States Before Democratic Convention

As the Democratic National Convention approaches, no clear favorite has emerged in swing state polls, with the current RCP Average of the top seven battleground states having Trump up just .2 points while he led by 4.3 points in the same average before Biden dropped out of the race. The latest polls from The New York Times and Rasmussen show most battleground states remain closely contested.

Rasmussen’s latest poll, conducted Aug. 13-17 for NumbersUSA with 1,093-1,312 likely voters per state, found Trump leading by 1 point in the heads-to-head race in Pennsylvania, 47% to 46%. In a five-way race, Harris edged ahead by 1 point, 46% to 45%, with third-party candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr. trailing at 5%. An Emerson poll, conducted Aug. 13-14 for RealClearPennsylvania with 1,000 likely voters, found similar results, with Trump up by 1 point in a head-to-head matchup, though tied in the five-way.

In Arizona, Rasmussen reported Trump leading by 2 points in a two-way matchup and 1 point in the five-way race. However, a New York Times/Siena poll, conducted Aug. 8-15 with 655-677 likely voters, found Harris leading by 5 points in a head-to-head and by 4 points in the five-way. In the RCP Average for Arizona, Trump leads by only 0.2 points. When Biden dropped out on July 21, Trump led by 5.8 points in the state.

In Michigan, Rasmussen found Harris leading by 1 point in the head-to-head race and by 3 points in the five-way race. A Fabrizio/Anzalone poll, conducted Aug. 7-11 for AARP with 600 likely voters, reported Trump ahead by 2 points in the five-way, with the race tied in a direct matchup. However, in the current RCP Average, Harris is taking a growing lead in the state, currently leading by 2 points.

The New York Times poll also showed Harris gaining ground in North Carolina, leading by 2 points. In the five-way North Carolina RCP Average, Trump and Harris are tied, and Trump leads by only 1.2 points in a head-to-head RCP Average.

In other southern swing states, Georgia and Nevada, The New York Times poll showed Trump leading by 4 points and 1 point, respectively. These states remain tight in previous polls as well, with the current RCP Average showing Trump up by 1.3 points in Nevada and 1 point in Georgia. In Wisconsin, the race leans slightly toward Harris, with the latest AmGreatness/TIPP poll showing her up by 1 point in the five-way. The latest Wisconsin RCP Average has her leading by 1.7 points.

Despite the presidential race being close in swing states, Democratic Senate candidates hold strong leads in most toss-up races. Even in Ohio, where Rasmussen reported Trump leading by 7 points, Democratic Sen. Sherrod Brown leads Republican challenger Bernie Moreno by 5 points.

Other close Senate races, according to Rasmussen, include Michigan, where Democratic Rep. Elissa Slotkin leads former Republican Rep. Mike Rogers by 2 points, and Pennsylvania, where incumbent Democratic Sen. Bob Casey leads Republican businessman David McCormick by 3 points. In Arizona, Rasmussen found Democratic Rep. Ruben Gallego with an 8-point lead over Republican Kari Lake. In Nevada, where Trump leads in the RCP Average, The New York Times poll found incumbent Democrat Jacky Rosen leading Republican challenger Sam Brown by 9 points.