One Month To Go: Swing States Still Up for Grabs

With just over one month until the presidential election, polling is ramping up, with multiple swing state polls released over the last week. However, the polls aren’t providing much additional insight into which candidate might prevail in November, as they indicate the race remains tight.

In the largest and most important swing state, Pennsylvania, this effect was most evident. In all three of the polls released this week in the state – from Susquehanna, Muhlenberg College, and Rasmussen Reports – the race was a dead even tie. The RCP Average in Pennsylvania is also very close, with Harris leading by 0.6 points.

Looking south to Georgia, Trump seems to be gaining a consistent lead: A CBS News poll from this week found he led by two points, a Marist poll found he led by one, and Rasmussen found he led by three. This mirrors the RCP Average in Georgia as well, with Trump leading in the state by 2.2 points.

In North Carolina, a state where Trump led in the RCP Average by 6.7 points in early July, the race is now nearly even. In the Marist poll, both candidates were tied, and in the RCP Average for North Carolina, Trump is leading by only 0.6 points.

The closest of the swing states, Nevada, had its latest poll from Noble Predictive Insights showing Harris up by one point, while The Hill/Emerson poll had the race tied. In the RCP Average for Nevada, the race is very close to tied, with Harris up by 0.4 points.

The last southern swing state, Arizona, has Trump in a slight lead, with the Marist poll showing Trump up by one point and Rasmussen having Trump up by two. The RCP Average in Arizona splits the difference between these two polls, with Trump up by 1.6 points.

In the remaining two northern swing states, Wisconsin and Michigan, Harris holds a slight lead. In Michigan, a USA Today/Suffolk poll found that Harris led by three points, and she leads by 1.8 points in the RCP Average for Michigan. In Wisconsin, Rasmussen found the race tied, and the RCP Average for Wisconsin has Harris ahead by 0.7 points.

If the current RCP Averages hold for the election, Harris will win with 276-262 electoral college votes. If Trump manages to hold the big three southern swing states – North Carolina, Georgia, and Arizona – he would need to win one of the northern swing states, Wisconsin, Michigan, or Pennsylvania, to secure victory.

In the swing state Senate races, no significant changes occurred, with the Democratic candidates still leading. In Pennsylvania, where Democratic incumbent Sen. Bob Casey Jr.'s lead appeared to be shrinking against Republican candidate David McCormick, Rasmussen found the race tied, but Muhlenberg College had Casey up by five points, and Susquehanna had Casey up by eight. These polls increased Casey’s lead in the RCP Average for the Pennsylvania Senate Race to 4.6 points, up from 3.5 points earlier in September.

In the other swing states, Democratic candidates lead by 4.2 points or more in the RCP Averages. However, Republicans are poised to take the Senate, as they are projected to flip currently held Democratic seats in Montana and West Virginia, which would shift the Senate from 51-49 in favor of Democrats to 51-49 in favor of Republicans.