One Week Remains: Trump Slightly Ahead in Swing States

With one week left until Election Day, the polls are unlikely to shift significantly unless there is a last-minute surprise. While Donald Trump still holds consistent leads in polls, his win is not guaranteed, as his edge falls within the historical margin of error in most swing states.

The latest polls in the northern swing states from USA Today and InsiderAdvantage all found results within a tight margin of error. In Wisconsin, the USA Today poll, conducted  Oct. 20-23 with 500 likely voters, found Trump led by 1 point. In the InsiderAdvantage polls, conducted from Oct. 26-27 with 800 likely voters in Michigan and Pennsylvania, Trump also led by 1 point in both states. The margin of error for these polls were all 3-4 points, meaning the race is still too close to call.

Tight polls have been the norm in the Rust Belt states. Of the eight polls in the current Wisconsin RCP Average, four had the race a tie, and the others showed less than 2-point leads in either direction, with Trump leading by only 0.3 points on average. In Pennsylvania and Michigan, the RCP Averages show similarly close races, with Trump leading by only 0.5 and 0.1 points, respectively.

In some of the southern swing states, Trump’s lead is slightly more pronounced but still close. The latest Trafalgar Group (R) poll, conducted Oct. 24-26 with 1,094 likely voters, found that Trump led by 2 points in Arizona. In a poll with 1,087 likely voters, Trafalgar found that Trump also led by 2 points in Georgia.

These two states are where Trump has his greatest lead in the RCP Averages. In Georgia, he currently leads by 2.3 points, and in Arizona, he leads by 1.5. These leads are still within striking distance for Kamala Harris. In 2016, Hillary Clinton led states like Wisconsin by more than 6 points and still lost.

In the other two swing states, Trump’s lead is similarly tight. In Nevada, Trump leads by only 0.7 points in the RCP Average, and in North Carolina, he leads by 0.8 points.

If Trump carries these leads on Election Day, he could win the Electoral College 312-226, as can be seen in the RCP No Toss-Up Map. However, with such tight leads, those results aren’t guaranteed, leaving the possibility that Harris could win the election.

In the Polymarket betting odds, which cover the outcome in each state, Trump also leads in every swing state. The tightest race is in Michigan, where Trump leads by 6 points, 53%-47%. The largest leads are in Arizona and Georgia, where he leads by 48 points, followed by North Carolina, where despite leading by less than a point in the RCP Average, he is favored to win by 42 points.