Polling and Betting Markets: Presidential Race Could Not Be Closer

In previous presidential elections, with less than a month remaining, one candidate has typically been seen as the frontrunner, based on polling, public sentiment, debate performance, and other factors – even if this perception has sometimes proven inaccurate. But this year, multiple indicators suggest that the 2024 presidential contest couldn't be tighter.

In nationwide polling, the latest Yahoo/YouGov poll, taken October 2-4, had Trump and Harris tied among likely voters at 47%. In the previous Yahoo/YouGov poll taken Sep. 11-13, Harris led by 4 points, 49%-45%, indicating that the race is continuing to tighten. In the Nationwide RCP Average, Harris still leads by 2.1 points.

However, the election won't be decided by a nationwide popular vote. In the swing states, neither Trump nor Harris has taken a significant lead. In the current RCP Average of Battleground States, the race is effectively tied, with Harris leading in Nevada, Wisconsin, and Michigan, while Trump leads in North Carolina, Georgia, and Arizona. In the largest swing state, Pennsylvania, the RCP Average shows the race as a dead-even tie.

The RealClearPolitics Betting Odds Average on Monday also had the race at a dead-even tie, with some markets showing Harris slightly ahead and others favoring Trump, but all reflecting a race within a few points.

One betting site with markets for the outcome of each state, Polymarket, which, according to its site, has over $1 billion in bets on the presidential election, currently has Trump favored in Pennsylvania with a 56% chance of winning the state. He is also favored in the other states where he leads in the RCP Averages, while Harris leads in the states where she holds the lead in the RCP Averages. If these predictions are accurate, Trump would win the election with 281-257 Electoral College votes. However, if he loses Pennsylvania, he would fall short with a result of 262-276. In the Polymarket betting market for the national popular vote, Trump trails Harris significantly, with only a 28% chance compared to Harris' 72%.

At this point in the 2020 election, a clear favorite had emerged. On Oct. 8, 2020, Biden led in the RCP Betting Odds Average by 29.4 points, 64.5%-35.1%. In 2016, Clinton's lead was even greater, with her lead on Oct. 8, 2016, being a significant 62 points, leading 81%-19%.

In national polling, both candidates were also performing much better than Harris, with Clinton leading by 4.6 points and Biden leading by 9.8 points nationally. Ultimately, however, both of their national leads diminished by Election Day, as Biden won by only 4.5 points, and Clinton won the popular vote by just 2.1 points.