Polls: Economic Outlook Positive for Second Trump Term

As the nation prepares for the transition from a Biden administration to Trump’s second term, Americans are looking ahead with cautious optimism about their financial futures. Recent polling indicates that Americans view the economy as a top priority and hold a renewed sense of hope for economic improvement under Trump’s leadership.

The latest Economist/YouGov poll, conducted Jan. 5-8 with 1,704 U.S. adults, found that 37% said they expect to be better off financially, compared to only 19% who said they predicted they would be worse off financially, and another 30% who said they would likely be in the same position they are now. Republicans were the most hopeful about the incoming administration, with 58% saying they expect to be better off financially, while only 29% of independents and 26% of Democrats said the same.

This marks a stark increase in the number of people who said they are better off financially than they were a year ago, which was only 14%. A plurality of respondents, 45%, said they were about the same financially as a year ago, while 37% said they were in a worse financial situation. On the state of the entire American economy, only 29% described it as “excellent” or “good,” while 67% said it was “fair” or “poor.”

Despite the optimism about personal finances over the next year, only 19% of respondents said the economy is currently getting better. This is likely not a reflection of pessimism about the economy Trump will bring, as 30% of Democrats said the economy is getting better, compared to only 15% of Republicans.

This decline in people’s financial situations has reflected poorly on their views of President Joe Biden. On the issue of inflation and prices, only 32% of respondents approved of how Biden has handled the issue, while 60% disapproved. On jobs and the economy, 38% approved, and 53% disapproved.

The issue of the economy is expected to be the most critical for Trump’s second term. When asked about the most important issue, 27% of respondents cited inflation and prices, and 12% cited jobs and the economy.

While the main issue that plagued the Biden administration was inflation, based on current trends it’s likely to be less of an issue for Trump. The current inflation rate, as measured by the Consumer Price Index, is down to 2.7% in the latest figures from November, a significant decrease from 9% in the summer of 2022. Despite the decline in inflation, the number of people who say inflation is their top priority has remained largely unchanged since the summer of 2022, when 24% of people said that inflation/prices was their top issue.

Unemployment, which was less of an issue during Trump’s first term, could become a serious problem if left unaddressed. While unemployment spiked during the COVID-19 pandemic, it fell below 4% by December 2021 and remained below 4% for most of Biden’s presidency. However, since July 2023, when it bottomed out at 3.5%, unemployment has slowly started creeping back up, reaching 4.2% in November. While this is not yet a major problem, as 4.2% is still below historical averages, if unemployment continues to increase at a similar rate over the next few years, it could be something Trump is forced to address.