Post Drop-Out Swing States: Trump Still Ahead

The latest national polls indicate that former President Trump has maintained a lead since President Biden dropped out and endorsed Kamala Harris. Similarly, in swing states where the election will be decided, his lead has lessened, but he is still ahead.

The first swing state poll to come out since Biden dropped out is from The Hill/Emerson College, conducted from July 22-23 with 800-850 registered voters per state. It covered the swing states of Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania, Georgia, and Arizona.

The state with the biggest swing from the Trump-Biden matchup was Wisconsin. Before Biden dropped out, Trump was up 3.3 points in the heads-up matchup against Biden, but in the Emerson poll, the race returned to a tie, 47% to 47%, which is where the Wisconsin race stood in June before the first presidential debate. In the five-way race, including independent Robert F. Kennedy Jr., independent Cornel West, and Green Party candidate Jill Stein, the race was also tied 45%-45%, with Kennedy at 3%, Stein at 1%, and West at 0%.

Pennsylvania also saw a significant shift in the Democrats' direction. In the last Pennsylvania Trump-Biden RCP Average, Trump was up 4.5 points, and in the Emerson poll, Trump maintained the lead, but it shrunk to two points in both the heads-up and five-way race. In Michigan, Trump’s lead fell from 2.1 points against Biden to one point in the heads-up race and was tied in the five-way race.

In Arizona, Trump maintained his large lead, leading by 5.8 points in the Trump-Biden RCP Average before and now by five points in the Trump-Harris matchup and eight points in the five-way race. Georgia followed the trend of shrinking Trump leads, with his lead falling from four points against Biden to two points in the heads-up poll and three points in the five-way race.

Compared to the Trump-Biden matchup, Trump’s lead fell by an average of 1.9 points. Compared to the last swing state Emerson poll that was conducted polling the Trump-Biden matchup, Trump’s lead has decreased by an average of 3.2 points.

The poll also surveyed voters' preferences for the Senate elections happening in the different swing states. Despite ties or Trump leads in every state, Democrats led in every Senate election: 46%-42% in Arizona, 45%-41% in Michigan, 48%-44% in Pennsylvania, and 49%-43% in Wisconsin. Compared to the Trump-Harris matchups, this poll indicates that, on average, Democrats fare 6.5 points better in the Senate races than the presidential races in the swing states.