RCP Average Shows Biden and Trump Tied in Virginia

Virginia may be thrust into the national spotlight as a battleground state in the 2024, as recent polling shows former President Donald Trump and President Joe Biden tied in the state, according to the RCP Average. Nationally, the RCP Average shows Trump up 2.7 points. 

A VCU poll from early July showed Trump leading Biden in Virginia by three points, though the numbers reflect a decline in Biden’s support rather than a rise in Trump’s. The results show Biden dropped from the 42% support he held in the last VCU poll, conducted in January, while Trump’s support remained unchanged at 39%.

The new poll was conducted from June 24 to July 3, so some of the results followed the June 27 presidential debate, when Biden’s performance raised questions about his cognitive function and ability to perform the most demanding job in the world.

A New York Times/Siena College poll conducted July 9-12 showed the opposite result, with Biden leading Trump by 3 points, 48% to 45%, among likely voters. A Fox News poll conducted at the beginning of June showed the two men tied. 

The turn of events is exciting Republicans and worrying Democrats. Virginians have not backed a Republican presidential candidate since 2004, when voters broke for George W. Bush. In 2020, Biden comfortably won the Old Dominion vote by 10.1 points, 54.1% to 44.0%. In 2016, Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton won 49.7% of the vote, 5 points ahead of Trump’s 44.4% support. 

But this time around, things look different for Trump.

“I want to tell [Trump], ‘Mr. President, I feel very confident you are going to carry Virginia on November 5,’” Virginia Republican Party Chairman Rich Anderson told NBC.

Anderson says the Trump campaign is planning to invest heavily in Virginia by opening offices, hiring staff, and scheduling more rallies. Trump held a rally in Chesapeake the day after he debated Biden, celebrating his “big victory” to a chorus of cheers from the crowd.

“[RNC leaders and I] talked about how we would kludge ourselves into a single operation here in Virginia,” said Anderson.

The Biden campaign, for its part, has half a dozen offices already open in Virginia. But Susan Swecker, chairwoman for the Democratic Party of Virginia, said the best possible thing for the Biden campaign would be Trump spending more time in Virginia.  

“Come on in here, Donald Trump, and you just keep talking and you keep telling those lies and you keep making stuff up,” Swecker said. “The more Virginia voters see you for what you are … the more they are going to understand what’s at stake and will vote for Joe Biden and Kamala Harris.”

Political analyst Mark Rozell, however, thinks Virginia being a swing state is a bad omen for the Biden campaign.

“The fact that we are now talking about Virginia being a competitive state, being in play, means that the Biden campaign is going to have to put precious resources into a state that they should have felt confident that they could win,” Rozell said.