Republicans Appear Likely To Take Senate; House Too Close To Call

As the presidential race captures most of the spotlight, control of Congress remains a key factor in determining the new president’s ability to pursue their agenda. According to the last round of polls before the election, Republicans seem poised to regain a Senate majority, while the battle for the House remains highly competitive.

The Senate is expected to switch to Republican control because the West Virginia Senate seat is a foregone conclusion, and Montana’s Senate seat is very likely a pickup for Republicans. Currently, GOP challenger Tim Sheehy leads incumbent Sen. Jon Tester by 7.7 points in the RCP Average for Montana.

Barring any other change, those races alone would shift control from the current 51-49 in favor of Democrats to 51-49 in favor of Republicans. Republicans also have opportunities to pick up seats in Wisconsin, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Michigan.

The closest of these is Ohio, where Republican Bernie Moreno leads by 3 points in the latest Hill/Emerson poll. In the RCP Average, the race is tighter, with Moreno ahead of Sen. Sherrod Brown by just 1.7 points.

In Wisconsin and Pennsylvania, Democratic Senate candidates are favored. Of the 17 polls in Pennsylvania, 14 showed Democrat Bob Casey ahead of Republican David McCormick, while only one favored McCormick. In Wisconsin, 10 of 13 polls had Democrat Tammy Baldwin leading, with one favoring Republican Eric Hovde. In the RCP Averages, Baldwin leads by 1.8 points, and Casey leads by 1.8. Both leads are still well within the margin of error.

In the open Senate seat in Michigan, Democrat Rep. Elissa Slotkin leads former Republican Rep. Mike Rogers by 2.3 points in the RCP Average. Given Slotkin’s advantage and Vice President Kamala Harris' narrow lead in the state, a Rogers win would qualify as an upset.

Other Senate races that could potentially flip but are longer shots include Arizona and Nevada, both currently held by Democrats. In Arizona and Nevada, Democrats seem likely to hold serve in both, as Democrat Ruben Gallego leads Kari Lake by 3.2 points in Arizona, and Democratic incumbent Jacky Rosen leads Sam Brown by 4.9 points in Nevada.

Democrats had hoped earlier in the cycle to pull surprises in Florida and Texas, but those hopes have dimmed somewhat. Florida Sen. Rick Scott isn’t going to win by double digits as Ron DeSantis and Marco Rubio did two years ago, but his lead over Democrat Debbie Mucarsel-Powell is 4.6% in the RCP average. Likewise, although Texas Sen. Ted Cruz has a competitive race on his hands, his lead over Democrat Colin Allred is now 4 points in the RCP Average.

A possible joker in the deck is Nebraska, where independent Dan Osborn has run a credible race against incumbent Republican Deb Fischer in a very red state. 

If the current RCP Averages reflect the final election results, Republicans would control the Senate, 52-48, as can be seen in the RCP Senate No Toss-Up Map. For Democrats to control the Senate, they must win Ohio, Texas, and the presidency, with the vice president casting the tie-breaking vote in a 50-50 Senate – as Kamala Harris did for four years.

The House of Representatives race is much closer. In the RCP Average for the General Congressional Ballot, Republicans lead by just 0.3 points – essentially a tie. This is the closest RCP Average in the General Congressional Ballot since 2012, when Republicans also led by 0.2 points, but still won the House by 30 seats.

In 2022, Republicans won the General Congressional Ballot by 2.8 points. In that year, there were 12 congressional seats Republicans won by a margin of 2.8 points or less. If Democrats won those 12 seats back, they would control the House with a 10-20 seat majority. However, a slight Republican gain in some districts, or a composition similar to the current House, could allow Republicans to retain control.

Betting markets align with these poll results. In Polymarket betting on who will win the House in 2024, Democrats have a 54% chance of winning, compared to Republicans’ 46%. In the Senate, however, Republicans are favored with an 80% chance, while Democrats hold just a 20% chance.