RFK Jr. Trump Endorsement Could Flip Election Momentum

In a podcast released Tuesday, Robert F. Kennedy Jr.’s vice-presidential pick, Nicole Shanahan, has said they are considering dropping out of the presidential race and endorsing Donald Trump in exchange for policy considerations and potential cabinet positions. As Kamala Harris is currently gaining a lead in polls, this potential move could shift election momentum back in Trump’s favor.

On the podcast, Shanahan confirmed that while the Kennedy-Shanahan ticket is still considering staying in the presidential race, they also are considering "join[ing] forces with Donald Trump." She said Trump had shown a "sincere interest" in some of Kennedy’s policies on chronic disease and other issues, prompting discussions about creating a "Unity Party" with Trump to advance their platform. 

Shanahan emphasized that no talks have occurred with the Harris-Walz campaign regarding endorsements or cabinet positions, citing claims that the DNC tried to stifle their campaign. “Clear Choice, this DNC-aligned PAC, was created specifically to take us out and has spent millions of dollars to do so. They have, unfortunately, turned us into a spoiler. We didn’t want to be a spoiler; we wanted to win. We wanted a fair shot, but the DNC made that impossible,” she said. Shanahan also accused the DNC of “banning us, shadow banning us, keeping us off stages, manipulating polls, using lawfare against us, suing us in every possible state, and even planting insiders in our campaign to create legal issues.”

In response to a question about whether Trump would consider a cabinet role for Kennedy if he endorsed him, Trump said Tuesday, “I would love that endorsement because I’ve always liked him,” and added that he "probably would" consider the cabinet option if he received the endorsement.

On Wednesday, Kennedy announced that he would address the nation Friday from Phoenix, Arizona, about the “present historical moment and his path forward.”

Effect on the Presidential Race

In the nationwide five-way RCP Average, Harris leads Trump 46.4% to 44.8%, with Kennedy in a distant third at 4.5%. In a head-to-head race, Harris leads Trump by a similar 1.5 points. However, other candidates, Green Party candidate Jill Stein and independent candidate Cornel West, primarily pull support from Harris. Stein currently polls at 0.4% in the five-way RCP Average, while West polls at 0.9%.

This suggests that since Harris polls similarly against Trump in both the heads-up and five-way races, but Stein and West siphon votes from Harris, Kennedy takes about one1 to 1.5 points more from Trump than from Harris.

In swing states, Harris slightly outperforms Trump in the five-way race compared to the head-to-head match-up. In Arizona and Pennsylvania, Kennedy and other third-party candidates shift the states from Trump leads to Harris leads. In North Carolina, Trump leads in a head-to-head race but is tied with Harris in the five-way contest.

Given that Kennedy pulls more votes from Trump than Harris, an endorsement could potentially swing undecided voters currently supporting Kennedy to Trump. With current polls showing neither candidate leads by more than 2.4 points in swing states, Kennedy’s 4.5% support could tip the balance in Trump's favor in states that may be decided by just a few thousand votes.