Senate Control at Stake in 10 Critical 2024 Races

With less than three weeks left until Election Day, most of the focus remains on the presidential race, which continues to be extremely close. However, there’s also potential for significant changes in Senate elections.

For the 2024 Senate elections, 10 key races stand out because they are either likely to flip parties or have the potential to do so. The first two are in West Virginia and Montana. Both seats are currently held by Democrats but are almost guaranteed to flip to Republicans, as Trump won West Virginia by 39.1 points and Montana by 16.4 points in 2020. In Montana, Republican Tim Sheehy leads Democratic incumbent Jon Tester by seven points in the Montana Senate RCP Average. In West Virginia, the only poll released shows Republican candidate Jim Justice leading by 34 points.

If the other races on Election Day align with the current RCP Averages and these two seats flip to Republican control as expected, Republicans would secure a 51-49 majority in the Senate. However, other races have tightened, creating uncertainty as Election Day nears.

Democrats have opportunities to gain seats in red states like Texas and Florida. In Texas, where Democrat Collin Allred is challenging Republican incumbent Ted Cruz, Cruz leads by four points in a University of Houston poll. In Florida, Republican incumbent Rick Scott leads Democratic challenger Debbie Mucarsel-Powell by seven points in the latest NBC 6/Mason-Dixon poll. According to the RCP Averages, Scott leads by six points and Cruz by four.

If Democrats flip one seat, the Senate could be split 50-50, with the vice president casting the tie-breaking vote. This would mean whichever party wins the presidency controls the Senate.

Republicans also have chances to pick up seats in six toss-up states currently led by Democrats. One of the closest is Ohio, where Trump is expected to win. Despite Trump’s 7.4-point lead in the state’s RCP Average, Democratic incumbent Sherrod Brown leads Republican Bernie Moreno by one point in the latest Washington Post poll and 2.6 points in the Ohio Senate RCP Average.

In Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and Michigan, Republican candidates are also behind but within striking distance. In Michigan, Democrat Elissa Slotkin leads Republican Mike Rogers by 2.7 points in the Michigan Senate RCP Average. In Wisconsin, Democrat Tammy Baldwin leads Republican Eric Hovde by three points in the Wisconsin Senate RCP Average, and in Pennsylvania, Democrat Bob Casey leads Republican David McCormick by 3.2 points in the Pennsylvania Senate RCP Average.

In Arizona and Nevada, Democrats hold larger leads. In Nevada, Democrat Jacky Rosen leads Republican Sam Brown by 5.5 points in the Nevada Senate RCP Average. In Arizona, the latest Trafalgar Group (R) poll shows Democrat Ruben Gallego ahead of Kari Lake by four points, with the Arizona Senate RCP Average giving Gallego a 6.4-point lead.

Although these leads aren't as narrow as the presidential election polls, where every battleground state is currently within 1.2 points in the RCP Averages, there is still time for the polls to shift before Election Day or for results to differ from the polls. With three weeks left, Senate election outcomes could still change, potentially resulting in a larger Republican majority or a tied Senate.