September RealClear Opinion Research Voter Priority Poll

Recent data from RealClear Opinion Research sheds light on how Americans view the major issues of the 2024 election cycle: the economy, abortion, and immigration – in that order.

The economy is the big one: It’s of paramount importance to as many people as abortion and immigration combined, and together, these three are the likely key to whether Donald Trump or Kamala Harris prevails in November. Recent polling from the New York Times/Siena College shows that, when asked, “What one issue is most important in deciding your vote this November?”, 28% of respondents said “the economy,” 14% said “abortion,” and 12% said “immigration.” These were the only three issues to get double-digit support. Typically, Trump outperforms Harris on the economy and immigration, while Harris tops Trump on abortion.

Harris has struggled to win Americans over on the economy as the cost of living remains high and housing prices continue to spiral out of reach for many working-class people. RC Opinion Research found that just 22.5% of Americans think the current state of the economy is “excellent” or “good,” while 50.9% think the economy is in “poor” or “terrible” shape. Another 26.2% think the current state of the economy is “fair.”

The Biden-Harris administration has sought to blame rising costs on pandemic-induced inflation, a conflict-heavy global sphere, and corporate greed. Harris also points the finger at Trump’s policies when he was in the White House, asserting during September’s presidential debate that she and Biden were forced to “clean up Donald Trump’s mess” for most of their term. But it is unclear whether the country is buying this narrative.

When asked who is most responsible for the current state of the economy, 18.8% of respondents answered “the Trump-Pence administration,” and 56.4% answered “the Biden-Harris administration.” Another 10.1% of Americans said neither, and 14.7% more blamed both.

If there is one issue that is more concerning for Harris than the economy, it is immigration. Large swaths of the country are deeply concerned about unchecked immigration and an underfunded border. Trump has made strict border law central to his candidacy and presidency since 2015, and he misses few opportunities to talk about what he sees as Biden and Harris’ mismanagement of America’s southern border.

RealClear Opinion Research asked respondents what they thought about the fact that net immigration to America was the highest in the world – 2.6 million people in 2022 and 3.3 million in 2023 – and just 19% of respondents thought, “Those numbers are fine.” Another 32% of people thought America should “slow the influx” of immigrants, and 15.8% thought America should “institute a moratorium on new arrivals.” One in three (33.2%) respondents believed America should “close the border immediately and deport recent arrivals who came here illegally,” pointing to the prevalence of anti-immigrant sentiment and the desire for a crackdown at the southern border.

Abortion, by contrast, is an issue Trump has struggled with since June 2022, when justices he appointed overturned Roe v. Wade. Far more Americans agree with the Democratic Party’s position on abortion, which is to reinstate federal protection for the procedure, than they do with the Republican position, which is to leave the matter up to the states – though Democrats claim Republicans will institute a national abortion ban if they get the chance.

RealClear Opinion Research asked respondents what they thought abortion law should be, and the results overwhelmingly aligned with Harris’ position. Two in five (40.3%) Americans think “the government should never place restrictions on women’s reproductive choices,” which is a more liberal stance than was typical before Roe was overturned.

About one in five (22.9%) respondents think abortion should be legal during the first and second trimesters, and 21.9% think the procedure should only be legal during the first trimester or in the case of “rape, incest, or the physical health of the mother.” Just 14.8% of respondents think abortion “should never be legal unless the mother is at risk of losing her own life,” suggesting a national abortion ban would be highly unpopular, as are many of the strictest bans in the country.

From the research, it is easy to see why the race is so close – the country is highly divided on the most important issues, and both candidates are vying to place their respective strong suits front and center. Trump currently leads Harris by 0.3 points in the top battlegrounds, according to the RCP Average.