Snapshots of Tuesday Night’s Debate

Most people think Vice President Kamala Harris won Tuesday’s presidential debate, according to a CNN snap poll conducted immediately following the debate.

The poll of debate watchers, conducted by SSRS, showed that a clear majority (63%) of people thought Harris outperformed former President Donald Trump. Prior to the debate, those same voters were evenly split over which candidate would win the debate, with 50% saying Harris would win and 50% saying Trump would win. 

These results were partisan, as is expected. But there was a drastic difference in those Harris supporters who said their chosen candidate won (96%) and those Trump supporters who said their chosen candidate won (69%).

Debate watchers’ favorable and unfavorable impressions of Harris grew equally following the debate, while few people changed their opinion of Trump. Harris’ favorability (45%) and unfavorability (50%) rating grew by 6 points each, while Trump’s favorability rating grew by two points, to 41%, and his unfavorability rating grew by just one point to 52%.

An equal share of debate watchers – 54% – said they had some confidence in Harris’ and Trump’s abilities to lead the country, with 36% saying they had “a lot” of confidence in Trump and just 32% placing complete confidence in Harris. Comparatively, 14% of viewers expressed a lot of confidence in Biden’s ability to lead following his candidacy-ending debate in June.

The CNN poll of debate watchers mirrored other polls in that most viewers felt Trump was stronger on the economy and immigration, while Harris outperformed the former president on the issues of “protecting democracy” and abortion. Trump has a 23-point advantage on immigration and a 20-point edge on the economy, while Harris has a 9-point lead on protecting democracy and a 21-point lead on abortion.

Harris had the edge when it came to which candidate Americans thought better understands the problems facing regular people today, 44%-40%. Trump, however, outperforms Harris 49%-43% on “the role of commander in chief,” suggesting that a critical mass of voters still do not see her as a presidential figure.

The vast majority (82%) of debate watchers said the face-off didn’t affect their choice for president. Another 14% said it made them reconsider but didn’t make them change their mind, and just 4% said they changed their mind about whom to cast their ballot for. Nearly one quarter (23%) of debate watchers who supported Trump prior to the debate said they were reconsidering their vote, while just 12% of Harris supporters felt the same.

The majority of media outlets lauded Harris’ performance, while prominent voices on the right argued that if Trump was not his best self, it was only because of unfair treatment of the Republican nominee on the part of the two ABC moderators. Trump himself, in a morning call-in interview to Fox News, pronounced the debate “rigged.” 

There were some surveys, such as one done by Reuters, that asked smaller sample sizes what they thought of the debate.

Reuters asked 10 undecided voters how they were leaning after the debate. Six said they were leaning toward Trump, three said they were leaning toward Harris, and one remained unsure. Five of the voters said they found Harris “vague,” a common complaint about the vice president, who tends to paint in broad strokes.

The election will be decided by just tens of thousands of swing voters in swing counties in swing states, many of whom are quite like those interviewed by Reuters. While Harris might have outperformed Trump in the debate, she still has work to do in closing the deal. Her opportunities to do so are dwindling.