Swing State Deep Dive: Nevada

Yesterday, we dove into the most eastern and most highly populated swing state, Pennsylvania. Today, we whip west, to the battleground with the least electoral votes: Nevada. The Silver State, with two Democratic senators, a Republican governor and a quickly growing purple population, has just six Electoral College votes – but could still sway the 2024 presidential election.

Nevada has voted consistently Democratic since 2008, including when Hillary Clinton beat Donald Trump by 2.2 points in 2016. President Joe Biden then managed to increase the Democrats’ winning margin to 2.4 points in 2020. Yet a tight race in the polls suggests it will be a hard-fought win for Kamala Harris, if it is a win at all.

Harris leads Trump by just 0.4 in the RCP Average. Polling has been sparse in Nevada; there have been only three polls out of the state this month. Noble Predictive Insights and the Republican-leaning Trafalgar group both had Harris up 1 point, while The Hill/Emerson had the race tied. 

Nevada has a unique population dispersal, and one quite telling in regard to what issues matter most to its citizens. In the last two presidential elections, 15 of Nevada’s 17 counties voted Republican. But the two counties that didn’t – Clark and Washoe – make up almost 90% of Nevada’s population according to census data. Clark and Washoe are home to Las Vegas and Reno respectively, two cities highly reliant on tourism.

Tourism makes up over 15% of Nevada's economy, meaning the state was crushed during the COVID-19 pandemic. Though the jobs are mostly back, the scars remain: Nevada has the highest unemployment of any state in the country at 5.4%, with 6.7% in the Las Vegas area, compared to the national average of 4.2%. The economy is top-of-mind for Nevada voters – and Americans generally – as high costs continue to cause pain.

With so much of its population working in the service industry and living on tips rather than a fixed income, higher prices can hit extra hard. Trump’s proposal to remove taxes on tips is appealing to such voters.

Harris is matching that tips plan and pairing it with an increase in the minimum wage. She also plans to offer $25,000 to first-time home buyers and a $6,000 tax credit for families with newborn children. 

That homeowners plan might attract some Nevadans, as housing prices are rising in step with its population. People are flocking to the once sparsely populated state, with many coming from Nevada’s expensive neighbor, California. Joe Schoenmann, host of KNPR’s “State of Nevada,” told NPR that wealthy Californians are “buying homes over the asking price” and “driving up housing costs” in the Silver State.

Interest rates have been so high for so long that many working-class Americans are now unable to buy a home. Democrats are hoping that the trickle-down effects of lowered interest rates – a move made by the Federal Reserve last week –  will hit Americans quickly and help ease the burden voters are shouldering, while making the Biden-Harris administration look good.

Aside from Californians, Nevada’s Latino population is also increasing: An estimated 20% of households in the state are now Spanish-speaking. In 2020, approximately 60% of Latino voters backed Joe Biden, but there has been a fight to push the growing demographic to the right. The recent Nobel Predictive Insights poll suggests right-leaning PACs have been successful: Harris leads Trump by just 3 points (46%-43%) among Latino voters in Nevada.

Latino voters, like other Nevadans, are concerned about the economy. This is bad news for Harris, as Nevadans trust Trump more on the issues of inflation (47%-42%) and taxes (45%-44%), according to the Nobel poll. Harris, however, is more trusted on the issue of affordable housing (49%-38%). Local polls suggest that the economy is far and away the most important issue to voters, with 40% of Nevadans saying it is the most important factor in deciding their vote.

The second most important issue to voters might help Democrats: 17% of Nevadans indicated that abortion laws matter more than any other issue. Abortion is on the ballot in Nevada this November, and Democrats are hoping the issue will drive left-leaning voters to the polls.

Since the U.S. Supreme Court overturned Roe v. Wade in 2022, at least a dozen states have passed new abortion protections. So far, every time the issue of abortion has been put on the ballot – even in staunchly red states – Americans have voted to establish protections for the procedure. Polls show that 69% of Republicans and 90% of Democrats living in Nevada do not want to criminalize abortion before viability (24 weeks), so the measure will likely be successful in Nevada.

There are two other factors to keep in mind when it comes to Nevada: third-party candidates and the Senate. First, know that Democrats get a boost in the state because Jill Stein, the Green Party candidate, will not appear on the ballot in Nevada.

Democrats challenged Stein’s eligibility in Nevada, saying her paperwork was filed incorrectly. Stein is polling with 1.1% support in the RCP Average of a multi-candidate race, which includes Harris, Trump, Stein, one-time independent Robert F. Kennedy Jr., and independents Chase Oliver and Cornel West. Kennedy, choosing to suspend himself and avoid being a “spoiler,” successfully removed himself from the ballot in Nevada.

In Nevada’s Senate race, GOP contender veteran Sam Brown is trying to fend off Sen. Jacky Rosen’s reelection bid. Rosen, who needs to win if the Democrats have any hopes of keeping their Senate majority, leads by 8.8 points in the RCP Average. Rosen’s relative popularity in the state will – Democrats hope – help Harris in November.

Of all the “Sun Belt” states – battlegrounds of the south like Arizona, North Carolina, and Georgia – Nevada appears most likely to swing blue. And while six Electoral College votes may not seem like a lot, there are several scenarios in which the entire election could come down to Nevada, making it as important as any of the more headline-grabbing battlegrounds.