Swing State Deep Dive: Pennsylvania

One battleground state has received more headlines than any other: Pennsylvania. The Keystone State was the site of an assassination attempt on former President Donald Trump in mid-July, served as the stage for Vice President Harris’ first official campaign event in late July, and was home to the first (and perhaps only) debate between Trump and Harris just two weeks ago.

With the most electoral votes of any swing state (19), it is said that neither candidate can win the presidency without winning Pennsylvania.

The eclectic makeup of Pennsylvania once famously prompted political strategist James Carville to declare that the state was simply two large cities with Alabama in the middle. Pittsburgh lies to the west, Philadelphia looms to the east, and rural Pennsylvania – sometimes called Pennsyltucky for its cultural similarities to the Appalachian state – sprawls out in between. 

There are two Pennsylvanian industries of note this election cycle: steel and natural gas. The state is undergoing turmoil as Japanese company Nippon Steel attempts to buy U.S. Steel, a 123-year-old Pennsylvania-based company that employs (directly and indirectly) 15,000 people across the state. Neither Harris nor Trump wants the deal to go through, as it would be another example of failing American industry and would dampen the spirits of Pennsylvanians who take pride in production. Harris in particular wants to remain on the United Steelworkers’ good side, and the 1.2-million member union (which is formally endorsing Harris for president) is also against the sale.

The other issue of note is fracking for natural gas. The subject came up at the debate, with Trump claiming that “fracking in Pennsylvania will end on day one” of a potential Harris presidency. Harris supported a ban on fracking in her 2020 run for president but has since backtracked on the issue. The candidates will need to play their cards right on these two issues if they hope to win over the crucial swing state.

Pennsylvania has been narrowly divided every time Trump has been on the ballot. In 2016, Trump won the state by less than a percentage point (44,000 votes). Four years later, Trump lost by 1.2 points (80,000 votes) to President Joe Biden, who spent much of his childhood in the state and likely benefitted from the nostalgia vote. Just six weeks out from Election Day, Vice President Kamala Harris is currently up a slim 0.7 point against former President Donald Trump, according to the RCP Average.

In the days immediately following the debate, things looked good for Harris. A USA Today/Suffolk poll had Harris up 3, the NY Times/Siena poll had her up 4, and a Quinnipiac poll had the vice president up 5. But the most recent polls show a tighter race. The Washington Post and Marist have the race tied, while The Hill/Emerson and Insider Advantage placed Trump up 1 and 2 points respectively. 

Both Trump and Harris remain laser-focused on the Keystone State, as potential paths to victory almost always hinge on winning Pennsylvania. The Trump campaign believes they can take the White House with Pennsylvania, Georgia, and North Carolina, while the Harris team plans to win the election by rebuilding its “Blue Wall” with Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and Michigan. These latter three states have voted for the same party in every election since 1992.

The two candidates continue to make frequent appearances in the state as they hope to lock down its key voters. Trump plans to attend an event Monday afternoon hosted by the Protecting America Initiative, which is led by Trump’s former acting director of national intelligence Richard Grenell. The two men are expected to discuss Trump’s plans to counter U.S. reliance on China, as reported by AP News. The event will focus on proposals to increase America’s food supply and protect U.S. farmers from foreign businesses.

On Monday evening, Trump will rally voters in Indiana, Pennsylvania, a town outside of Pittsburgh. The Steel City and its surrounding areas have experienced a population downtick, job loss, and school closures, creating disillusionment among working-class Americans that Trump will attempt to capitalize on in his campaigning.

White, non-college-educated voters make up approximately 46% of the Pennsylvania electorate, according to the NY Times poll, and Trump hopes this group will help him pull ahead of Harris, who also plans to visit Pennsylvania on Wednesday. Harris typically campaigns in large cities to drum up excitement among her diverse base, but she seems to be taking a different approach in Pennsylvania.

One of the vice president’s most recent visits to the Keystone State consisted of stops in its conservative interior. It seems Harris believes that her path to victory might lie in shaving percentage points off Trump’s impressive winning margins in rural Pennsylvania.

At a campaign rally in Wilkes-Barre, the largest city in a county where Trump won 57% of the vote in 2020, Harris said she would remove “unnecessary degree requirements” for some federal jobs, a pitch directly targeted at Trump’s base. Harris also emphasized her work as a prosecutor hunting down drug dealers for “pushing poisons like fentanyl on our children,” a talking point often highlighted by Trump campaign surrogates.

The Harris campaign claims that 16 of its 50 Pennsylvania offices are in rural counties that Trump won by double digits in 2020. Though the campaign recognizes they are unlikely to flip such communities, they hope to minimize damage.

Pennsylvania’s Senate race could also influence the presidential contest. Democratic incumbent Bob Casey has the support of 47% of likely voters, while Republican challenger and former hedge fund CEO Dave McCormick trails by 1 point, with 46% support, according to the Washington Post poll. Casey is up 4.9 points in the RCP Average.

It may be too strong to say that the race hinges on Pennsylvania. After all, there are paths to victory that allow for a Keystone State loss. But the race for Pennsylvania will put both candidates, their running mates, their budgets, and their strategies to the test as they fight tooth-and-nail for those coveted 19 electoral votes.