Swing State Polls Narrow, Senate Control in the Balance

Although most news over the last two weeks has focused on the presidency, one key to how effective the president will be is the composition of the Senate. The latest polls indicate that Democrats still lead in the swing state Senate races, but it likely won’t be enough for them to hold the Senate in November.

The latest batch of Senate polls were conducted by Public Policy Polling and Rasmussen Reports. In both polls, the two closest Senate races were Arizona and Pennsylvania. In Arizona, Democratic incumbent Kyrsten Sinema is leaving the Senate after her first term, leaving the seat open for two competitors. The current race is between Democratic Rep. Ruben Gallego, who has served in Arizona’s 3rd District since 2023, and Republican Kari Lake, who lost the 2022 Arizona gubernatorial race. Both polls had Gallego up by three points over Lake, similar to the current 3.3-point lead Gallego holds in the RCP Average for the Arizona Senate race.

In Pennsylvania, David McCormick, former CEO of the multi-billion-dollar asset management firm Bridgewater Associates, is challenging incumbent Democratic Sen. Bob Casey, who has served since 2007. Both polls also had Casey up by three points, indicating that his lead might be narrowing, as the RCP Average has Casey up by 5.8 points.

The polls also surveyed Wisconsin, where entrepreneur and real estate developer Eric Hovde is challenging two-term incumbent Democratic Sen. Tammy Baldwin. In the Rasmussen poll, Baldwin led by four points, while in the PPP poll, she led by 10 points. The RCP Average for Wisconsin has Baldwin ahead by 5.4 points.

In Michigan, incumbent Democratic Sen. Debbie Stabenow announced she will leave the seat after serving for 24 years. To replace her, Democratic Rep. Elissa Slotkin, who has served Michigan’s 7th District since 2019, is facing former Republican Rep. Mike Rogers, who served in Michigan’s 8th District from 2001 to 2015. Slotkin led by three points in the Rasmussen poll and 10 points in the PPP poll, and the RCP Average shows Slotkin ahead by 6.5 points.

The last state, Nevada, was only surveyed by the Rasmussen poll. The poll has first-term Democratic Sen. Jacky Rosen leading veteran and businessman Sam Brown. In the Rasmussen poll, Rosen leads by three points, and the RCP Average for the Nevada Senate race has Rosen leading by four points.

The Public Policy Polling polls were conducted from July 10 to 12 with 537 to 597 registered voters per state for Clean and Prosperous America. The Rasmussen Reports surveys were conducted from July 5 to 12 with around 1,000 likely voters per state for the Heartland Institute.

Despite the Democratic leads in all the swing state Senate elections, Republicans are still poised to take back the Senate after the November elections. Currently, Democrats hold a two-seat majority, 51-49, but with West Virginia Sen. Joe Manchin’s retirement from the Senate, his seat is effectively guaranteed to turn over to a Republican, as Trump won the state by 39.1 points in 2020.

As can be seen in the RCP Senate Map, all the toss-up Senate races are seats currently held by Democrats, meaning Republicans only need to win one other seat to take a majority in the Senate. This includes a Montana Senate race where Democratic incumbent Sen. Jon Tester, who has served since 2007, faces Tim Sheehy, a former Navy SEAL and founder of Bridger Aerospace, a firefighting and aerospace company valued at around $140 million. The latest poll had Sheehy up by five points, with the RCP Average showing Sheehy up by 1.5 points.