Swing States Remain Tight Post-Presidential Debate

After last week’s presidential debate, just one more scheduled nationwide event could impact the state of the presidential race: the vice-presidential debate on Oct. 1. Despite some polls indicating Harris outperformed Trump slightly in the debate, the race in key swing states remains neck and neck, with no clear leader emerging less than 50 days before Election Day.

Over the weekend, a series of polls from Trafalgar Group (R) and InsiderAdvantage found the race within 2 points across all swing states, similar to previous results. In Pennsylvania, likely the most crucial swing state, an InsiderAdvantage poll taken Sept. 14-15 with 800 likely voters found Trump up by 2 points. However, another poll from USA Today/Suffolk, taken Sept. 11-14 with 500 likely voters, found Harris led by 3 points. Earlier polls showed an equally contested race, and the current RCP Average in Pennsylvania has Trump up by just 0.2 points.

In Wisconsin, the InsiderAdvantage poll found Harris up by 2 points. In Michigan, it found Trump leading by 1 point, while a MIRS/MI News Source poll from Sept. 11 with 580 likely voters found them tied. Harris currently leads in the RCP Averages by 0.7 points in Michigan and 1.2 points in Wisconsin.

In the southern swing states, the race is equally close. In Georgia, a Trafalgar Group poll conducted Sept. 11-13 with 1,098 likely voters found Trump up by 1 point, while the RCP Average for Georgia shows him leading by just 0.2 points. In North Carolina, Trafalgar found Trump leading by 2 points, while an AmGreatness/TIPP poll found him up by 3 points. The RCP Average for North Carolina shows Trump leading by 0.4 points.

The other two swing states are also tight. In Arizona, Trafalgar found Trump leading by 1 point, while in Nevada, Harris led by 1 point. The RCP Averages reflect these leads, with Trump up by 1.3 points in Arizona and Harris ahead by 1.2 points in Nevada.

Based on the current RCP Averages, the RCP No Toss-up Presidential Map currently projects Trump winning the race, 281-257. However, this no-tossup map depends on Trump winning states like North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Georgia, where his lead is less than 0.5 points.

In the Senate races, polls indicate shrinking Democratic leads. In Pennsylvania, incumbent Democrat Sen. Bob Casey led Republican David McCormick by 5 points in the InsiderAdvantage poll, but Casey’s RCP Average lead has dropped from 7.6 points in late August to 3.5 points on Sept. 17. A similar trend is seen in Arizona, where Democrat Rep. Ruben Gallego led Republican Kari Lake by 4 points in the Trafalgar poll, with his lead shrinking from 8.1 points in August to 4.5 points on Sept. 17 in the RCP Average for the Arizona Senate race.

Nevada is an exception to this trend, where Democratic incumbent Sen. Jacky Rosen led Republican challenger Sam Brown by 8 points in the Trafalgar Group poll and currently holds a 9.5-point lead in the RCP Average for the Nevada Senate race.