The Biden Campaign Has a PR Problem on the Economy

A recent Harris poll found the majority of Americans have pessimistic misconceptions about the economy, spelling trouble for President Biden’s reelection campaign. Biden lags behind former President Donald Trump by 0.9 points, according to the RCP Average. 

The poll, which was conducted exclusively for The Guardian, highlighted the gap between the actual state of the economy and public perceptions. Nearly three in five Americans (55%) believe the economy is shrinking, and even more (56%) think the United States is experiencing a recession. Yet a recession is typically defined as a decrease in gross domestic product (GDP) over two successive quarters, and America’s GDP has not decreased in nearly two years.

Political lean does impact economic impressions, with two-thirds of Republican respondents believing the country is currently experiencing a recession. Still, about half of independents (53%) and Democrats (49%) believe an economic recession is occurring, indicating that anxiety – if not a perfect understanding of the data – about the economy is pervasive.

The chasm between reality and perception abounds in all sectors: Roughly half of all Americans believe the S&P 500 stock market index is down for the year, even though the index went up about 24% in 2023 and is up another 12% this year, closing at a record high on May 21. The same percentage of respondents think unemployment is at a 50-year high, though the unemployment rate has been under 4%, a near- 50-year low.

When it comes to inflation, interpreting the responses is trickier. An overwhelming majority of respondents (72%) believe inflation is increasing. This isn’t accurate. Prices are still rising, but the inflation rate has plummeted from its post-COVID peak of 9.1% in June 2022 and has been sitting between 3% and 4% a year. But Biden has muddied the waters himself by repeatedly claiming that inflation was over 9% when he took office (it was 1.4%), by prematurely declaring inflation to be defeated, and by giving credit to the Inflation Reduction Act, legislation which most economists believe had no effect on the inflation rate. The bottom line is that every day Americans are paying more for groceries and other staples than they were when Biden took office – and are likewise burdened by higher interest rates. This helps explain why even 61% of Democrats believe inflation is increasing, with Republicans (80%) and independents (74%) even higher.

Nonetheless, there is an unmistakable  gap between opinion and reality, a phenomenon dubbed a “vibecession” by economics writer Kyla Scanlon. In the Harris poll, 70% of Americans said their biggest economic concern was the cost of living, as rising wages haven’t kept up with the rising cost of rent and groceries.

The Biden campaign has a PR problem – most of the Americans polled (58%) say the economy is worsening due to Biden’s mismanagement of the situation. Consumer confidence fell to a six-month low in May, suggesting the issue won’t be resolving itself any time soon, and will require some serious spin – even if the spin is simply an emphasis on the hard numbers.