The Fight for Young Voters Is On

Young voters are more likely to be uncommitted to a presidential candidate than any other age group, according to recent data from the Washington Post. The fight for their vote is on.

Forty-three percent of 18-25-year-olds claim they are undecided about who to vote for on Nov. 5, a significantly larger share than any other age group. One in three (33%) of 26-39-year-olds are uncommitted, 31% of 40-49-year-olds are uncommitted, 22% of 50-64-year-olds are uncommitted, and just 15% of those 65 and older are uncommitted.

Surveys suggest Vice President Kamala Harris is polling better among the nation’s youngest voters than former President Donald Trump. A recent poll from Emerson – which placed Harris up one point on Trump nationally – showed that when asked who they would vote for if the election were held tomorrow, 60% of 18-29-year-olds planned to vote for Harris, while 38% planned to vote for Trump.

Harris’ support among young voters mirrors Biden’s from 2020 when 59% of 18-29-year-olds voted for the nation’s oldest president. Data from Pew Research Center shows that Trump may be gaining support among young people, however. In 2020, the former president received 35% of the age group’s vote share, which means he is up a few points this time around.

Historically, voter participation lags among the youngest cohort, although there was a significant increase in 2020, when 50% of those under-30 voted in the presidential election. This was the highest in U.S. history and an 11-point increase from 2016 (39%), according to the Center for Information and Research on Civic Learning. (Nonetheless, their turnout paled in comparison to that of voters over the age of 65: three-quarters of the age group voted, according to census data.) 

The nation’s youngest voters may not be its most reliable, but that is part of their appeal: both candidates feel they have a shot at that ‘uncommitted’ 43% of the age group and are rightfully convinced that those voters could make a real difference in what is an increasingly tight race.

Trump’s campaign has consciously sought the support of young men. The former president leads Harris among young men 58%-37% across the last three national polls and is using online avenues to solidify his standing. Trump has been interviewed by hypermasculine podcast hosts, co-starred in TikToks with UFC President Dana White, and secured the endorsement of ultra-bro and founder of Barstool Sports Dave Portnoy – all highly impressive to young men who find the Democratic Party too “woke” for their liking.

Recent data from the Harvard Youth Poll proves what is anecdotally clear: young men are moving to the right. Since the spring of 2002, the share of young men identifying as registered Democrats has dropped by seven points, while those identifying as Republicans has increased by seven points – a net shift of 14 points in just four years. Young women during the same period shifted two points away from Republicans.

Democrats are trying to take advantage of their pull with young women, launching a Taylor Swift-themed “I Will Vote” campaign across Florida and other battleground states. The campaign includes Snapchat filters and advertisements that will direct Swifties and others to IWillVote.com, which provides information about voting and registration.

Several of Harris’ proposals are directly aimed at young Americans, like her plan to provide $25,000 in down payment assistance for first-time homebuyers and her promise to give a $6,000 tax credit to new parents. The Biden-Harris administration also continues its crusade to forgive student debt, a measure that polls well among both young and older voters.

The strategies of the two candidates, like most everything about them, differ significantly. Time will tell whose approach wins out.