The Ups and Downs of the Biden Presidency

As President Biden's term draws to a close and the spotlight shifts to Vice President Harris' campaign, Biden himself has stepped back from the political forefront. While his presidency started with high hopes and positive public sentiment, it has since been marked by a series of challenges that have gradually eroded his approval ratings. From foreign policy setbacks to economic struggles, Biden's time in office has seen both significant highs and lows.

Even though he has faced a net negative job approval rating for most of his presidency, Biden started off on a positive note. On Feb. 1, 2021, 11 days after his inauguration, the president’s approval rating was a net positive 19.9 points, 55%-35.1%, according to the RCP Average for Biden’s Job Approval.

It stayed that way for about six months. However, the first major issue that took its toll on Biden’s popularity was the withdrawal from Afghanistan. During the summer of 2021, his approval rating started dropping and became negative on Aug. 20, six days before 13 U.S. service members were killed in Kabul during the withdrawal. By Oct. 1, 2021, he faced -4% net approval, and he was never again above water.

In late 2021, another drag on his approval became apparent: inflation. At the time, the Federal Reserve said that “inflation is elevated, largely reflecting transitory factors.” This turned out to be wrong. Higher energy prices, due partly to the outbreak of war in Ukraine, exacerbated the inflation rate, which soared to 9% in June 2022. On July 21, 2022, Biden faced his worst net approval rating of the term, -20.7%, with 57.5% disapproving and 36.8% approving.

As inflation started to cool after the summer of 2022, Biden’s approval rating began to improve slightly, but he never got back in the positive column. On Feb. 25, 2023, it reached -5.9% as some of the public focus shifted focus from Biden back to Trump and the Republican primary. However, as 2023 continued, his disapproval numbers again crept up, returning to double digits by the summer and fall.

Later that year, the Oct. 7 attacks by Hamas in Israel coincided with another decrease in his approval rating. One month after the attack, his approval fell to -14.7% and stayed hovering around -14 to -16 until the summer of 2024.

In the summer of 2024, the first presidential debate between Biden and Trump also took its toll, creating the second-worst spike of his term, reaching -19.3 points a week after the debate. Since he dropped out of the 2024 presidential contest, it has improved slightly to -14.5 points in the current RCP Average.

Compared to previous presidents, Joe Biden’s current approval is the lowest in the RCP Average of the last four presidents at this point in their terms. On Oct. 8, 2020, Trump had 44.4% approval, Obama had 49.7% approval on Oct. 8, 2012, and Bush had 50.3% approval on Oct. 8, 2004, while Biden’s approval currently sits at just 41.3%.

While his overall approval and approval on specific issues such as the economy and inflation remain negative, there are some issues where he maintains positive approval. According to the latest Economist/YouGov poll, his best issue is civil rights, where he has 44% approval and 38% disapproval. On the issues of civil liberties and “climate change and the environment,” he also has positive approval ratings, at 2 points and 1 point, respectively.