Trump and Harris Paths to Victory

With just one week remaining until the presidential election, the race is shaping up to be one of the closest in recent history. Polling and various other indicators suggest that the outcome, whether a win for Donald Trump or Kamala Harris, will follow a clear pattern in hindsight. Here’s a look at polling patterns and how each candidate could secure victory.

Trump’s Path to Victory

Right now, Trump is slightly favored to win. In the RCP Average of Betting Markets, he currently leads by 23 points, 61%-38%.

One reason for his lead in the betting markets is his lead in the swing states. In the RCP Average, Trump leads in all seven swing states by an average of 0.9 points.

For Trump to win, he needs to secure 51 of the 93 Electoral College votes up for grabs in the swing states. His largest leads are in Arizona, where he leads by 1.5 points in the RCP Average, and Georgia, where he leads by 2.3 points. Assuming these states are secure, Trump would need another 24 electoral votes, which means he must win Nevada and Pennsylvania or any two of North Carolina, Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin.

The case for a Trump victory is supported by the anti-Trump bias in the polls in 2016 and 2020, which, on average in the 2024 swing states, showed a 1.9-point and 1.1-point bias against him, respectively. This was especially true in Wisconsin, where Trump outperformed the polls by 6 points in 2020 and 7.2 points in 2016. If Trump overperforms in the swing states by similar margins in 2024, he is likely to win.

While national polling isn’t directly applicable to election results, overall numbers indicate that Trump is performing better than in 2020 and 2016. In the National RCP Average, he leads by 0.1 points, compared to Clinton's 5.6-point lead at this point in 2016 and Biden’s 7.4-point lead in 2020. If Trump again outperforms national polling in swing states, as he has in the past two elections, it bodes well for his chances.

Harris’ Path to Victory

While betting markets favor Trump, they don’t guarantee a victory. In 2016, Hillary Clinton led in the RCP Average of Betting Markets by 75 points before Election Day, 88%-13%, but Trump won.

In the swing states, Trump’s lead is narrow in many places. To win, Harris needs 45 of the 93 available electoral votes in the swing states. To secure those 45 votes, she would only need to overcome Trump’s 0.2-point lead in Wisconsin, 0.2-point lead in Michigan, and 0.6-point lead in Pennsylvania, according to the RCP Average. She could also lose one of these states and win North Carolina, where Trump leads by only 0.8 points, and win the election.

Even Arizona and Georgia are not secure if there is similar anti-Democrat bias in the polls as seen in 2022. On average, in the six 2022 Senate elections in the 2024 swing states, the polls were biased by 3.7 points in favor of Republicans. If the current polls have a similar bias in Republicans’ direction, Harris could be leading in every swing state and would be favored to win.

On the national front, while the two candidates are effectively tied, some recent polling suggests Harris could still be ahead. The latest poll from Rasmussen Reports, conducted Oct. 21-24 with 2,745 likely voters, shows Harris ahead by 1 point. Rasmussen had previously shown Trump leading by 1-3 points in every weekly poll since August. If other polls show a similar last-minute swing toward Harris, she could take the lead in national polling going into Election Day.

Ultimately, we won’t know until (at least) Nov. 5 whether the polls were accurate in showing Trump slightly ahead or if there was a significant bias. Any outcome is still possible, leaving uncertainty right up until Election Day.