Trump and Slotkin Hold Tight Leads in Michigan Races

In early July 2016, Hillary Clinton led Donald Trump by 8.3 points in Michigan. In 2020, Joe Biden led by 7.5 points in the early July Michigan RealClearPolitics Polling Average. This year, the polls are much closer, with the RCP Average showing Trump with a lead of less than two points in Michigan since early May.

The current RCP Average in Michigan has Trump up 1.2 points. However, despite the tight race in the average of polls, the latest poll from Michigan indicates Trump’s lead might be widening. The EPIC-MRA poll, conducted with 600 likely voters from June 21-26, showed Trump leading Biden by four points, 49% to 45%, in a head-to-head race. This poll was conducted before the first presidential debate on June 27, meaning the results might change once the debate’s impact is factored in.

In the five-way race, including independent candidates Robert F. Kennedy Jr. and Cornel West and Green Party candidate Jill Stein, Trump led Biden by three points, 41% to 38%. Kennedy received 10%, while Stein and West each received 2%. In the five-way RCP Average in Michigan, Trump currently leads by 1.4 points.

This is a narrower lead than earlier this year. In January, Trump led by 5.3 points. Most of that lead was not due to increased support for Trump, who was polling at 46% in the RCP Average and is now only one point higher at 47%, but because Biden was polling poorly at 40.7%. This low support was likely due to disapproval of Biden’s stance on the Israel-Hamas conflict, which led 101,000 people to vote “Uncommitted” in the Michigan Democratic primary on February 27. Biden’s support has since risen from 40.7% to 45.8% in the current RCP Average.

Despite Trump’s lead in the presidential race in Michigan, Democratic U.S. Rep. Elissa Slotkin is currently ahead in the Senate race. Her likely opponent is former U.S. Rep. Mike Rogers, who served in Congress from 2001 until 2015, when he decided not to seek reelection. Neither is the confirmed candidate yet, as their primary is on August 6. However, Rogers leads by 21 points in the RCP Average for his primary, and Slotkin leads her opponents by 45 points in the latest polls.

In the matchup between Slotkin and Rogers, the EPIC-MRA poll shows Slotkin leading by two points, 44%-42%. Other recent polls support this lead; a Hill/Emerson College poll conducted from June 13-18 had Slotkin up by four points over Rogers. The current RCP Average for the race has Slotkin ahead by 2.2 points, 39% to 36.8%. However, with 24% of voters still undecided, results might change as voters get to know the candidates after the primaries next month.