Trump Gaining, Harris Still Leads in Nationwide Polls

Over the last week, Donald Trump has taken a slight lead in the swing states, currently ahead by 0.4 points in the RCP Average of the Battleground States. While Trump still trails Kamala Harris in national polls, he has gained in recent weeks.

The latest polls from CBS News and ABC News/Ipsos still have Harris in the lead nationally. In the CBS poll, taken from Oct. 8-11 with 2,719 likely voters, Harris is ahead by three points, and the ABC poll, taken from Oct. 4-8, had Harris up by two points. These both represent slight changes from previous polls from these pollsters, as the last ABC and CBS polls taken in mid-September both had Harris up by four points.

The biggest change in polling, though, came from an NBC News poll, taken from Oct. 4-8 with 1,000 registered voters, which had the race tied. The previous poll, taken after the first presidential debate from Sept. 13-17, had Harris up by five points, meaning the latest poll represents a five-point swing.

One of the most consistent pollsters, Rasmussen Reports, has not shown a shift in polling over recent weeks, as they find Trump still leading by two points. He has led by one to two points every week in weekly polling from Rasmussen since late August.

In the head-to-head Nationwide RCP Average, Harris currently leads by 1.7 points, a small decrease from the 2.2-point lead she held in the average about a week ago on Oct. 3. This lead is much smaller than Biden’s 10-point lead in the RCP Average at this point in the race in 2020, and Clinton’s 6.7-point lead in 2016.

In multi-way polls, Harris performs similarly. The latest Economist/YouGov poll, taken from Oct. 6-7, had Harris up by four points, but the NBC poll had Trump up by one point, and ABC had Harris up by two points. In the multi-way RCP Average, Harris leads by a similar 1.4 points.

Trump is also gaining in the betting markets. In the RCP Betting Odds Average, he currently holds the biggest lead either candidate has had in the race since the beginning of August: nine points.

On one betting site, Polymarket, he also leads the betting odds in every swing state except Nevada, where he trails 49%-51%. In Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania, his leads are tight, all within six points. Despite his lead in most swing states in the betting markets, Trump still only has a 28% chance to win the popular vote, according to Polymarket.