Trump Retakes Lead in Betting Odds During Democratic Convention

Many predicted a bump in betting odds and polls for Harris after the Democratic National Convention as the Democratic Party was given the opportunity to create the narrative around the election – similar to what happened after the assassination attempt against Trump and the Republican National Convention. However, the inverse seems to be happening, as Trump has retaken the lead in betting odds.

Right after the Republican National Convention and the day before Biden dropped out of the race, in the RealClearPolitics Betting Odds Average Trump had a 61% chance of winning the presidential election. However, just about three weeks after Biden dropped out and endorsed Harris, she had taken the lead away from Trump. Her lead peaked on Aug. 15 at 8.8 points ahead of Trump, 53.7% to 44.9%.

Since the Democratic National Convention began on Aug. 19, however, Harris’ lead in the RCP Betting Average has disappeared. At the start of the convention, she led by 5.3 points in the betting average, but by Thursday Trump held a small lead of 2 points.

Polymarket, one of the betting sites used in the RCP Betting Average, also has betting markets for state-by-state election winners. On Thursday it predicted that of the seven swing states, Trump would win Arizona, Nevada, Georgia, North Carolina, and Pennsylvania, while Harris would take Wisconsin and Michigan. This matches the current head-to-head RCP Averages in the swing states.

Diagnosing why the betting odds flipped back in Trump’s favor isn’t an exact science, but the likely culprit is Robert F. Kennedy’s vice-presidential pick, Nicole Shanahan, saying on a podcast that there had been talks about Kennedy dropping out of the race and endorsing Trump. Kennedy subsequently announced that he would address the nation on Friday “about the present historical moment and his path forward.” If Kennedy decides to drop out of the race, the move will likely shift five-way polls in Trump’s direction by 2.5 to 3 points, as Kennedy drew more votes from Trump than Harris.

No specific polls were released showing Trump up more than before. He still maintains a very narrow lead in the head-to-head race in the swing states and is behind in the five-way race in swing states. Harris currently holds her biggest lead in national polling this year, leading in the RCP Average by 1.6 points.

However, these polls have yet to consider the main impacts of the Democratic National Convention and the possible Kennedy endorsement. After the convention and Kennedy’s address Friday, the only major planned nationwide events left will be two presidential debates and a vice-presidential debate. With polls and betting markets still closely contested, both candidates are still looking for a chance to break away so that the election isn’t left to a coin flip on Election Day.