Trump Retakes Lead in RCP Average

Former President Donald Trump leads in the RealClearPolitics National Average for the first time since Aug. 4. With just eight days until the presidential election and millions of ballots already cast, Vice President Kamala Harris is down 0.1 points nationally and 0.9 points in the RealClearPolitics Battleground State Average.  

Trump’s lead in the battleground states is no recent feat, but his gains in the national polls have made headlines as further proof that the former president has taken back command of a contest he had in the bag before the Democrats’ switcheroo.

At the beginning of the month, Harris was seeing three-, four-, and five-point leads in most national polls. Recent surveys, however, have shown tangible momentum in Trump’s direction. Four of the eight latest polls included in the RCP Average have found the race tied, while two surveys – from CBS News and Rasmussen Reports – have placed Harris up one point. A Forbes/Harris X poll placed Trump up two points, while a Wall Street Journal poll showed the former president up three points on Harris.

In what is shaping up to be the closest – and perhaps most consequential – election in a generation, any slight movement in the polls will inevitably be dissected as potentially significant.

“We have seen a number [of polls] – four in the last four days – that have shown very small – but in the context of this close race, potentially meaningful – movement in Trump’s direction,” NBC polling analyst Steve Kornacki said on Sunday’s “Meet the Press.”

The RealClearPolitics Betting Average, while not scientifically representative of public opinion, reflects the winds of change as well. Since President Joe Biden dropped out of the race and Harris took over at the top of the ticket, Trump and Harris have been duking it out in an even match for any slight edge in the betting average.

But the numbers show just how much of a dive Harris’ "vibes" campaign has taken over the past month: On Oct. 1, Harris led by 2.5 points in the betting average; on Oct. 27, Trump led by 23.6 points.

Pollster Nate Silver wrote in his Silver Bulletin blog that the shift is “not a good sign” for Harris so close to Election Day. Trump, for his part, is conveying confidence on the campaign trail. The former reality TV star and his supporting cast – including the personalities of Elon Musk and Tucker Carlson – take turns jabbing at Harris’ policies, race, and gender.

Though things look as good as they ever have for Trump a week from Election Day, some warn that the shifting momentum could be artificially manufactured. Betting markets, in particular, have the potential to be manipulated, warned University of Kentucky political science professor Stephen Voss.

“The problem these days is that now everyone’s watching those future markets, so that movement in the markets generates valuable publicity for a candidate who pulls ahead,” Voss told Newsweek. “A few investors with deep pockets could sway those numbers not because they think they’re making good bets, but instead because they want to make a candidate look deceptively strong.”

The Wall Street Journal released a report last week which found that popular prediction market Polymarket may have seen its odds “manipulated” toward Trump by a wave of $30 million bets from just four accounts.

Voss also urged the electorate “not to put too much stock in short-term fluctuations in polling” because “they’re mostly random noise.”

Voss is right: Slight shifts – especially those within surveys’ margins of error – are not predictive, and statistics do not tell the whole story. But eight days out, they tell an important part of it: Namely, Trump is no longer the underdog.