Trump vs. Harris: First Polls Reveal Tight Race

Before the polls could react to the assassination attempt against President Trump and the J.D. Vance VP pick, President Biden announced that he would no longer run as the Democratic presidential nominee and endorsed Vice President Kamala Harris. The first round of post-endorsement polls is now out and indicates that Harris is better positioned than Biden was.

The latest Reuters/Ipsos poll, conducted on July 22-23 with 1,018 registered voters, found that Harris led Trump by 2 points, 44% to 42%, in a head-to-head race. Including independent candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr., Harris extended her lead to 4 points, 42% to 38%, with Kennedy receiving 8%.

The previous Reuters/Ipsos poll, conducted July 15-16 after the assassination attempt against President Trump, found Trump and Harris tied at 44% each in the hypothetical matchup. In the same poll, Biden was behind Trump by 2 points, 43% to 41%.

Another poll from Morning Consult, conducted July 21-22, found Trump leading Harris by 2 points, 47% to 45%. The previous Morning Consult poll, taken July 15-16, found that Trump was up 1 point in the Trump-Harris matchup, and 4 points in the Trump-Biden matchup in a separate Morning Consult poll conducted July 15-17.

Other polls taken slightly before the endorsement had Trump consistently leading against Harris. Two polls from Quinnipiac and Forbes/HarrisX, conducted July 19-21, had Trump up by 2 points and 6 points, respectively. In a five-way race, the Quinnipiac poll had Trump leading by 4 points, 45% to 41%. In the RCP Average, which includes primarily polls conducted before Biden dropped out and endorsed Harris, Trump is up by 1.9 points.

Trump pollster Tony Fabrizio argued in a memo Tuesday that polls indicating Harris is gaining or leading Trump are due to a "Harris Honeymoon," which he said is a result of the "wall-to-wall coverage Harris receives from the mainstream media." Fabrizio continued, "The coverage will be largely positive and will certainly energize Democrats and some other parts of their coalition, at least in the short term."

Fabrizio also noted that due to the events of the last two weeks, including the assassination attempt, the Republican National Convention, and the Vance VP pick, "President Trump has seen a bump in his numbers in a number of recent public polls."

However, Fabrizio argued that these polls aren’t indicative of a long-term change in the race. "The fundamentals of the race stay the same. The Democrats deposing one nominee for another does not change voters' discontent over the economy, inflation, crime, the open border, housing costs, not to mention concern over two foreign wars," he wrote in the memo.

The Harris campaign is benefiting from this "honeymoon" financially as well, reporting that they have raised $100 million in less than 36 hours. This included contributions from 1.1 million unique donors, with 62% being first-time donors.