Two Weeks To Go, Where Does the Race Stand?

By Adeline Von Drehle
Published On: Last updated 10/21/2024, 10:30 AM EDT

With just over two weeks until Election Day, former President Donald Trump is pulling ahead of Vice President Kamala Harris in the battleground states, according to the RCP polling averages.

In an average of the seven battleground states that are likely to decide the presidential election, Trump is up 1.0 points. He leads by 1.6 points in Arizona, 0.8 points in Nevada, 0.2 points in Wisconsin, 1.2 points in Michigan, 0.8 points in Pennsylvania, 0.5 points in North Carolina and 1.8 points in Georgia. Harris still leads by 0.9 points in the RCP National Average

Both Harris and Trump have been on campaign blitzes in the swing states as the race enters its final stretch. The two collided in Michigan’s Oakland County on Friday as they fight over the state’s potentially decisive 15 Electoral College votes. More than 1 million voters in Michigan have already cast their ballots .

Harris made a blue-collar pitch in Oakland County’s Waterford Township and in Grand Rapids, touting her support for labor unions while asserting that the former president is “no friend of labor.”

Before headlining a rally in Detroit Friday evening, Trump also stopped in Oakland County for a roundtable in Auburn Hills. He promises to bring manufacturing jobs back to America by instituting high tariffs on imported vehicles.

“I think it’s more beautiful than ‘love,’ the word ‘tariff,’” Trump said.

On Saturday, Harris headed to Georgia for a rally in Atlanta. She focused her message on abortion, discussing the personal stories of women who have died in states that have erected barriers to abortion. Early voting is underway in the Peach State, and 1.2 million votes have already been cast either in person or by mail.

Trump Saturday was campaigning in Pennsylvania, where the state’s 19 electoral college votes are coveted by both campaigns. At the rally in Latrobe, Trump veered into raised eyebrow territory by lauding the manhood of hometown golfing legend Arnold Palmer and speaking of Harris in coarse language.

“You have to tell Kamala Harris that you’ve had enough, that you just can’t take it anymore, we can’t stand you anymore, you’re a shit vice president,” Trump said to a roaring crowd. “The worst. You’re the worst vice president. Kamala, you’re fired. Get the hell out of here.”

In response, Harris said Trump “demeans the office” of the presidency.

Harris on Sunday marked her 60th birthday by visiting two black churches in Georgia. Her campaign recognizes she will need outsized support among non-white voters if she hopes to win the election, though Harris denies that she is placing special focus on winning over specific demographic groups. Asked about polls showing a lack of support among black men, Harris told Al Sharpton that she must earn the support of all voters.

“I am very clear, I must … earn the vote of everyone regardless of their race or gender,” Harris said during a taped interview with Sharpton on MSNBC’s “PoliticsNation.”

For his part, Trump stayed in Pennsylvania on Sunday, heading to a McDonald’s restaurant where he bagged food and manned the drive-thru window. The photo-op was a cheeky effort to cast doubt on Harris’ claim – made as part of her middle-class origin story – that she worked at the fast-food chain in college. 

“I’ve now worked for 15 minutes more than Kamala at McDonald’s,” Trump said as he handed out orders. 

The remainder of the election will undoubtedly see more personal barbs and headline-seeking stunts as the race hurtles to its conclusion. With 15 days to go, the contest is too close to call.


2024-10-22T00:00:00.000Z
Every Week
The Takeaway
A special edition RCP newsletter that keeps you in the know on all the latest polls this election season.

2024 Key Senate Races

Get caught up on the most important polling for the most consequential races of 2024.