Veepstakes Didn’t Alter the Status Quo

The vice-presidential debate between Ohio Sen. J.D. Vance and Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz was policy-heavy with a side of Midwest nice, a refreshingly normal moment in an increasingly chaotic political arena. The pair of right-hand men focused their attacks on those at the top of the tickets, agreed with each other on several points, and even lingered in conversation after the sparring wrapped up. Did any of it matter?

Pollster and communications strategist Frank Luntz convened a focus group of 14 undecided voters who broke 12-2 in favor of Vance. But several snap polls showed that Americans who watched the debate split evenly (and along party lines) when asked who did the best. A CBS News poll showed 42% of debate watchers said Vance won, while 41% thought Walz came out looking better. Another 17% said the debate was a tie. A CNN survey found that 51% of viewers thought Vance did a better job, and 49% felt Walz won. Politico found that voters were split 50-50 over who had a more impressive performance.

The results are in stark contrast to the two presidential debates of the 2024 election cycle, when debate watchers thought Donald Trump came out the obvious winner against Joe Biden and the clear loser against Kamala Harris. Opinions about the vice-presidential debate, in contrast, showed major partisan lean. Seventy-two percent of Democrats believed Walz won, while 71% of Republicans felt Vance won, according to Politico’s findings. The same poll found that Walz had an impressive advantage among independents, 58% to Vance’s 42%.

If debate-watchers felt the matchup was even, the media commentariat seemed impressed by Vance. Ohio’s junior senator had made negative headlines for his comments on women and their roles in society, and Democrats have used the sound bites in an attempt to convince female voters that Vance was a throwback – and not in a good way. But Vance managed to do some significant rebranding on the debate stage.

Vance made modulating rhetorical overtures to blunt controversial Republican proposals on issues ranging from mass deportation to tariffs. He showed a compassionate side when he spoke about the Republican party’s need to regain voters’ trust on the issue of abortion and consoled Walz after learning Walz’s 17-year-old son witnessed gun violence, a sharp contrast from the Vance that America has seen on the campaign trail who at one point called for Harris to “go to hell.”

If Vance’s goal was to improve his image, he largely succeeded. Prior to the debate, 40% of Americans viewed Vance favorably, while 54% viewed him unfavorably, according to the CBS poll. After the debate, his favorability rating grew by nine points, while his unfavorability rating dropped by seven points. Opinions of Walz also spiked upward after the debate: his favorability rating grew by eight points from 52% to 60%, while his unfavorability rating dropped by six points from 41% to 35%.

The same poll showed that debate watchers thought that Walz did a significantly better job talking about abortion (62%-38%) and health care (59%-41%), while Vance had a slight edge on the economy (51%-49%) and immigration (52%-48%). Viewers thought the two men produced equally worthy responses on the conflict in the Middle East (50%-50%).

There seemed to be a tacit agreement between the two men that the debate was unlikely to move the political needle – the CNN poll found that a negligible 1% of voters said it changed their mind about whom to vote for – and thus was void of snappy comebacks or potentially meme-able moments.

There were a few noteworthy moments, like when Vance was asked about the events of Jan. 6 and told Walz that he is “focused on the future,” a response Walz called “a damning nonanswer.” There was Walz calling himself a “knucklehead” for misspeaking on his travels to China, and Vance snapping at CBS debate moderator Margaret Brennan for fact-checking Vance and then cutting his microphone. 

Overall, however, the vice-presidential debate is more likely to go down in history as being a moment of respite rather than an event of significance. The race remains neck-and-neck, with Trump up 0.1 points in the RCP Battleground State Average and Harris up 2.2 points in the RCP National Average.