What if Both Sides Are Wrong About Post-Debate Impact?

Watching the Democratic reaction to Thursday’s debate was like watching the stages of the Kubler-Ross model of grief unspooling at rapid pacing. There was denial (“he has a cold”), anger (“How could his staff have let this happen?!?”), bargaining (“OK, we can replace him”), depression (“Michigan is no longer winnable”), and finally, acceptance (the various Democratic party officials deciding to stand by him). At the same time, Republicans were beset with a touch of irrational exuberance; I won’t bother to list the people who predicted a Carter-Reaganesque landslide.

This is certainly possible, and I write this column with a touch of trepidation. A glut of polls could come out today showing Trump breaking open a massive lead. Nevertheless: What if both sides are wrong? What if this ends up being something of a “nothing burger”?

Let’s rewind six weeks. Donald Trump was locked in a Manhattan courtroom, on trial for falsifying business records to hide an affair with a porn star. Our consensus as analysts was this: With any other candidacy, this would be a death knell. But with Trump, this is all baked in. Everyone knows he’s a bit ethically challenged. Everyone knows he says and does stupid things. They don’t much care.

This analysis was basically correct. There was some evidence that his poll numbers had slipped, but overall, very little changed in the race.

So what if most people already know that Biden is old? They’ve seen the videos of him mumbling before, stuck on stage, frozen, or seeming to wander around. What if that, too, is all baked in?

I don’t know the answer to this, but it certainly seems plausible. It’s why, just as I’m sort of skeptical that reminding people about Jan. 6 is unlikely to alter campaign dynamics much (it isn’t as if people have forgotten Jan. 6), so too will evidence that President Biden is quite old be unlikely to change things.

What limited polling we have, excluding partisan pollsters, suggests that this might be the case. The Friday after the debate, Morning Consult had Biden leading by a point. Today, Trump leads by a point. Data for Progress had Trump up three. Their last poll, from March, had Biden up one. Survey USA showed Trump up two; their previous poll showed a tie. In Michigan, EPIC-MRA showed Trump up four. Their last poll, in February, showed Trump up four. 

This is consistent with perhaps a modest bump for Trump. Again, we don’t have a ton of data here, but it doesn’t seem as though the race is getting away from Biden. Today’s Supreme Court ruling on presidential immunity is likely to refocus Democratic partisans on the differences they have with Trump and help stem defections or threats to stay home. Maybe the next batch of polling will show something different. But I’d guess that if Democratic internal polling were showing a collapse, you wouldn’t see the party apparatus rallying around Biden to the degree that it has.

Where there is an impact, though, is this: It’s a missed opportunity for Biden. He really needed to reset the dynamics of the race, and there’s no way to portray this as anything but a setback, of at least some degree. He only has so many more opportunities, and he can’t afford to waste many more.