When Will We Know Our Next POTUS?

Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump are neck and neck in the polls, with Trump leading by just 0.1 points in the national RCP Average and 0.8 points in the battleground state RCP Average. Seventy-four million people had already cast their ballots as of Saturday in what is the tightest presidential race in a generation. Voting will close Tuesday – but how long will it take to call the race?

The timeline for calling the race depends on two things: how close the race is in individual states, and the varying laws of those states regarding vote counting. Given how tight recent polls out of swing states have been and the fact that mail-in ballots take longer to count than in-person votes (because they need to be opened and verified), America should be prepared to sit tight for results.

In 2020, when there was a record-high number of mail-in ballots due to the COVID-19 pandemic, it took until the Saturday after Election Day for the media to project a winner in the presidential race. In 2022, control of the Senate also took five days to be projected, and control of the House wasn’t decided until eight days after Election Day.

If the race is truly as close as polls suggest, America can expect to see results from the seven most-watched battleground states trickle in at different times over the days and weeks after Nov. 5.

Pennsylvania, perhaps the most important of the battlegrounds with its 19 electoral votes, will likely take several days to produce results, as election workers are not allowed to start processing mail-in ballots until Election Day. Trump has a slight edge on Harris in Pennsylvania, up 0.3 points in the RCP Average. 

In Michigan, new rules mean that America could see results relatively quickly. The Great Lakes state implemented nine days of early in-person voting, and now allows counties to process mail-in ballots before Election Day. Harris is up in Michigan by 0.9 points, according to the RCP Average. 

The country will likely see results out of Wisconsin on Wednesday. While poll workers cannot begin processing ballots until Election Day, they are required to count through the night until all ballots have been processed. Full results, then, are expected the morning after polls close. Harris leads in Wisconsin by 0.3 points in the RCP Average. 

Results out of Arizona could take several days to be reported, as poll workers must wait until after polls close to process ballots that arrive on Election Day. Officials say full results could take 10 to 13 days, and some outlets did not call the 2020 election until nine days after voting closed. Trump leads in Arizona by 2.9 points – his widest margin of all the swing states – in the RCP Average.

Nevada ballots can arrive up to four days after the election, and voters have a week to address mistakes with the ballots, so results out of the Silver State are likely to take several days. Trump leads Harris in Nevada by 1.0, according to the RCP Average.  

In Georgia, where Trump leads by 1.9 points in the RCP Average and four million voters have already cast their ballots, vote reporting is expected to go quickly. It took more than two weeks to call the state for Joe Biden in 2020, but that was because the presidential race was so close that a hand-tallied audit of ballots was conducted. The race was only called when the audit confirmed Biden’s 2020 victory by a margin of 12,000 votes. 

In North Carolina, the electorate can expect results almost immediately – 98% of votes were reported by midnight Eastern time in the last two major elections. Whereas in 2020 ballots postmarked by Election Day had nine days to arrive, new rules mean mail ballots are now due by Nov. 5. Trump leads in the Tar Heel state by 1.5 points in the RCP Average.

There is a scenario in which the polls are wrong, one candidate wins by a landslide, and the race is called on the evening of Nov. 5. But in all likelihood, America – and the world – won’t know the next POTUS for days or even weeks after voting closes.