Whom Do Voters Trust To Handle Foreign Conflicts?

Recent polls consistently find national security and the level of U.S. intervention in foreign conflicts among the most important issues to voters. With two major conflicts overseas continuing as we enter election season, these issues are even more critical. The latest Economist/YouGov poll surveyed voters on whether they trusted Kamala Harris' or Donald Trump's ability to handle foreign conflicts.

The poll, conducted Sept. 1-3 with 1,389 registered voters, asked respondents if they believed Harris and Trump would be effective commanders in chief. Among respondents, 43% said they were very or somewhat confident that Harris would be effective, while 45% said the same of Trump.

When asked how confident respondents were that Trump and Harris would deal wisely with an international crisis, 40% expressed confidence in Harris, and 43% expressed confidence in Trump. 

These opinions largely fell along party lines, with Republicans confident in Trump and Democrats trusting Harris. However, independents expressed more confidence on average in Trump, with 41% confident in Trump during an international crisis, compared to only 25% for Harris. On the question of their effectiveness as commander in chief, 28% of independents said they had confidence in Harris, while 44% expressed confidence in Trump.

The poll also addressed general leadership ability, asking voters whether they viewed Trump and Harris as strong or weak leaders. In response, 52% described both as very or somewhat strong leaders. Among independents, 56% said the same of Trump, while 43% said the same of Harris.

In recent interviews, both candidates discussed their plans for addressing ongoing conflicts overseas. Speaking about the Israel-Hamas conflict in her first sit-down interview since becoming the Democratic nominee, Harris and vice-presidential candidate Tim Walz emphasized the need to secure a ceasefire and ensure hostages are freed from Gaza. Harris also reiterated her support for a two-state solution, advocating for Gaza’s self-governance. CNN did not ask her about the war in Ukraine.

In an interview with podcaster Lex Fridman, Trump stated he would secure a peace deal between Ukraine and Russia before taking office. He did not provide specifics on the deal nor on whether Putin would need to relinquish captured territory.

These conflicts have also weighed on Biden’s presidency, with widespread disapproval of his handling of foreign policy. Biden currently has a -19.3% net approval rating on foreign policy in the RCP Average, with a -13.3% approval rating for his handling of the Russia-Ukraine war. His lowest rating is on the Israel-Palestine conflict, where he faces a -33.6% net approval.