Would Biden or Harris Do Better Against Trump?

Although other stories, including the attempted assassination, the RNC, and Sen. J.D. Vance’s being chosen as former President Trump’s VP pick, have stolen the headlines this week, questions remain about whether President Biden will remain the Democratic nominee. One major factor in that decision is whether his likely replacement, Vice President Kamala Harris, performs better than he does in polls.

The latest polls tell conflicting stories. The only post-assassination attempt poll that covered both matchups was from Forbes/HarrisX, conducted from July 13 to July 15 with 1,918 registered voters. When asked who respondents would vote for, Trump led by three points against Biden, 45% to 42%, and by seven points against Harris, 49% to 42%. When undecided voters were forced to choose, Trump’s lead shrank to two points, 51% to 49%, against Biden, and four points, 52% to 48%, against Harris.

In the two other most recent polls that addressed both matchups, Harris and Biden performed similarly. A FOX News poll conducted from July 7 to 10 with 1,210 registered voters found that in a head-to-head matchup between Trump and Biden, Trump led by one point, and Trump also led by one point in the Trump-Harris matchup. An NBC poll from July 7 to 9 found Trump up by two points in both matchups.

In the RCP Averages for the two races, Harris edges out Biden, with Trump leading by 1.8 points in the Trump-Harris RCP Average and 2.5 points in the Trump-Biden Average. However, looking at the specific polls included in the Trump-Harris Average, Harris only outperforms Biden in two polls: one from CNN, taken from June 28 to 30, and one from ABC News/Washington Post. In three polls, Biden and Harris performed equally, and in four, Biden did better against Trump than Harris. Harris only does better in the RCP Average than Biden because a few polls showed substantive leads for Trump but only measured the Biden-Trump matchup.

In approval ratings, Harris fares slightly better than Biden. The latest Economist/YouGov poll, conducted from July 13 to 16, found that Biden faced a net approval rating of -21%, with 59% disapproval and 37% approval, while Harris had a net approval of -12%, with 48% unfavorable and 36% approval. The poll also found that 51% said Biden should “definitely” or “probably” step down, while only 30% said he should “probably not” or “definitely not” step down, with the other 19% saying they are “not sure.”

In the RCP Average for Harris’ favorability, she currently faces a -14.9-point spread, with 53.6% viewing her unfavorably and 38.7% viewing her favorably. Biden’s approval rating is slightly worse at -17.2 points, with 40% approval and 57.2% disapproval. On July 18 of Trump’s fourth year as president, he had 41.4% approval in the RCP Average, and Obama had 46.8% approval on July 18 in his fourth year as President.